Stanford vs. Notre Dame Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Notre Dame gets at Stanford: 4th at surviving second and twelve, against a unit 117th at closing out passing downs. Stanford projects no clear way in against Notre Dame. Notre Dame is also 9th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 92nd.
How
NDattacks
STAN
- 1
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
ND#4 of 138STAN#117 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
ND#9 of 138STAN#92 of 138 - 3
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
ND#4 of 138STAN#86 of 138
The two teams
Stanford
Stanford is in year 1 under Tavita Pritchard. The way in is 134th at running it, and they are 129th in the push up front.
Stanford has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offenserunning it#134projected
- Offensethe push the line gets#129projected
- Offensefirst and second down#128projected
Notre Dame
Notre Dame is in year 6 under Marcus Freeman, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 3rd at holding teams to field goals.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.9%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Notre Dame has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#3projected
- Offenserunning it#4projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#4projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ND Elo 2070, STAN Elo 1354 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ND -28.5 (97% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
STAN86th19thNDND45th117thSTANThrough the air
STAN45th23rdNDND26th137thSTANOn the ground
STAN103rd13thNDND114th34thSTANStaying on the field
STAN83rd34thNDND45th133rdSTANTaking care of it
STAN1st5thNDND1st46thSTAN
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNotre Dame leads 25–14 · Notre Dame has won 3 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| STAN | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| -8.5 (#68) | CORE overall | +18.0 (#3) |
| -1 / +8 | offense / defense | +7 / -11 |
| 1.54 | points / drive | 4.39 |
| 2.78 | allowed / drive | -0.05 |
| 36% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +4 | pass over expected | +13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Stanford vs. Notre Dame?
Gridpex's model favors Notre Dame with a 97% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Stanford vs. Notre Dame?
The model projects Notre Dame by 28.5.
What time is Stanford vs. Notre Dame and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET, at Notre Dame Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →