South Florida vs. UTSA Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where South Florida gets at UTSA: 24th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 126th at keeping everything in front of them. Where UTSA gets at South Florida: 28th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 118th at keeping everything in front of them. South Florida is also 24th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 75th.
How
USFattacks
UTSA
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
USF#24 of 138UTSA#126 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
USF#24 of 138UTSA#75 of 138
HowUTSAattacksUSF
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
UTSA#28 of 138USF#118 of 138 - 2
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
UTSA#21 of 138USF#63 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
UTSA#24 of 138USF#64 of 138
The two teams
South Florida
South Florida is in year 1 under Brian Hartline. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 24th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 118th at keeping everything in front of them.
South Florida has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#24projected
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#24projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#26projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#118projected
UTSA
UTSA throws it: Jeff Traylor's offenses have been pass-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 18th at staying on schedule through the air. The way in is 126th at keeping everything in front of them.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.6%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −15.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
UTSA has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensestaying on schedule through the air#18projected
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#21projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#24projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays#126projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTSA Elo 1525, USF Elo 1676 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTSA -0.7 (52% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
USF113th97thUTSAUTSA32nd84thUSFThrough the air
USF112th88thUTSAUTSA43rd83rdUSFOn the ground
USF110th134thUTSAUTSA43rd101stUSFStaying on the field
USF52nd115thUTSAUTSA129th50thUSFTaking care of it
USF1st9thUTSAUTSA1st22ndUSF
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USF | UTSA | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.4 (#33) | CORE overall | +1.2 (#34) |
| +1 / -0 | offense / defense | +2 / +1 |
| 2.77 | points / drive | 2.82 |
| 2.00 | allowed / drive | 2.46 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win South Florida vs. UTSA?
Gridpex's model favors UTSA with a 52% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for South Florida vs. UTSA?
The model projects UTSA by 0.7.
What time is South Florida vs. UTSA and what channel is it on?
Thu, Oct 8, 7:30 PM ET, at Alamodome.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →