Washington State vs. Utah State Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Washington State gets at Utah State: 86th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 129th at generating havoc. Utah State projects no clear way in against Washington State.
How
WSUattacks
USU
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected · 1 game in
WSU26.6%#86 of 138USU9.9%#129 of 138
The two teams
Washington State
Washington State is in year 1 under Kirby Moore. The strengths are defensive, led by 24th at closing out passing downs. The way in is 136th at hitting chunk plays, and they are 106th at shutting down the ground game.
Washington State has played 1 game against a soft slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 21% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensesurviving second and twelve34%#24 of 138
- Defensethrowing it+0.17#32 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays0.98#136 of 138
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground47%#106 of 138
Utah State
Utah State throws it: Bronco Mendenhall's offenses have been pass-leaning across 9 seasons. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 11th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 129th at generating havoc, and they are 119th at staying out of the backfield.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−2.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −32.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Utah State has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.00#11 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.35#28 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss9.9%#129 of 138
- Offensegetting stopped at the line27.5%#119 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down36%#112 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USU Elo 1386, WSU Elo 1536 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USU -6.5 (65% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
WSU135th41stUSUUSU126th123rdWSUThrough the air
WSU131st66thUSUUSU77th99thWSUOn the ground
WSU121st52ndUSUUSU111th131stWSUStaying on the field
WSU137th64thUSUUSU20th125thWSUTaking care of it
WSU104th127thUSUUSU137th76thWSU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| WSU | USU | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.4 (#47) | CORE overall | -2.0 (#79) |
| -2 / -8 | offense / defense | -0 / +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Washington State vs. Utah State?
Gridpex's model favors Utah State with a 65% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Washington State vs. Utah State?
The model projects Utah State by 6.5.
What time is Washington State vs. Utah State and what channel is it on?
Fri, Oct 9, 9:00 PM ET, at Maverik Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →