Tulsa vs. Navy Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Tulsa gets at Navy: 50th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 127th at keeping everything in front of them. Where Navy gets at Tulsa: 11th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 101st at generating havoc. Navy is also 2nd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 87th.
How
TLSAattacks
NAVY
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
TLSA#50 of 138NAVY#127 of 138
HowNAVYattacksTLSA
- 1
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
NAVY#11 of 138TLSA#101 of 138 - 2
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
NAVY#2 of 138TLSA#87 of 138 - 3
Lean on the run
moving the ball on the ground · projected
NAVY#31 of 138TLSA#75 of 138
The two teams
Tulsa
Tulsa is in year 2 under Tre Lamb. The way in is 126th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 109th at throwing it.
Tulsa has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#126projected
- Offensethrowing it#109projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#106projected
Navy
Navy runs it: Brian Newberry's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 132nd at generating havoc, and they are 131st at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Navy has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#2projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#11projected
- Offenserunning it#21projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#132projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#131projected
- Defensethrowing it#131projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NAVY Elo 1527, TLSA Elo 1277 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NAVY +0.1 (50% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TLSA93rd108thNAVYNAVY43rd57thTLSAThrough the air
TLSA108th133rdNAVYNAVY135th124thTLSAOn the ground
TLSA52nd6thNAVYNAVY2nd43rdTLSAStaying on the field
TLSA135th112thNAVYNAVY62nd65thTLSATaking care of it
TLSA21st127thNAVYNAVY48th9thTLSA
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNavy leads 9–2 · Navy has won 3 straight · 36% have been one-possession games
| TLSA | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.1 (#69) | CORE overall | -8.1 (#101) |
| -4 / -4 | offense / defense | -2 / +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Tulsa vs. Navy?
Gridpex's model favors Navy with a 50% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Tulsa vs. Navy?
The model projects Tulsa by 0.1.
What time is Tulsa vs. Navy and what channel is it on?
Sat, Oct 10, 3:30 PM ET, at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →