Playoff What-If

AnalysisAll analysis →

Pick the winner of any game still to play and the season re-runs around it: every other game, the conference title games, a fitted selection committee and the 2026 rules. Share the link and whoever opens it sees your scenario.

A percentage is the share of simulated seasons that end with that team in the field — a forecast, not a standing. A result you force counts the way a real one would: it also tells the simulation something about how good both teams are. 703 games left to pick. Back to the Playoff Picture →

No results set

Tap a team to make it win

Field ↓

Pick the winners

Your team

The remaining games whose result moves some team's playoff odds furthest. Percentages are each side’s chance to win before anything is forced.

Wk 11 · Sat, Nov 14moves Indiana up to 44 pts
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Wk 13 · Sat, Nov 28moves Georgia up to 44 pts
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Wk 4 · Fri, Sep 25moves Indiana up to 43 pts
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Wk 10 · Sat, Nov 7moves Ohio State up to 42 pts
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Wk 8 · Sat, Oct 24moves Miami up to 42 pts
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Wk 7 · Sat, Oct 17moves BYU up to 42 pts
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Wk 8 · Sat, Oct 24moves Indiana up to 42 pts
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Wk 12 · Sat, Nov 21moves Indiana up to 42 pts
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Wk 4 · Sat, Sep 26moves Georgia up to 41 pts
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Wk 7 · Sat, Oct 17moves Ohio State up to 41 pts
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Wk 7 · Sat, Oct 17moves Georgia up to 41 pts
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Wk 6 · Sat, Oct 10moves Indiana up to 41 pts
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Wk 11 · Sat, Nov 14moves Georgia up to 41 pts
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Wk 5 · Sat, Oct 3moves Georgia up to 41 pts
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Wk 3 · Fri, Sep 18moves Texas Tech up to 41 pts
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Wk 9 · Sat, Oct 31moves Ohio State up to 41 pts
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Wk 11 · Sat, Nov 14moves Ohio State up to 41 pts
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Wk 12 · Sat, Nov 21moves SMU up to 40 pts
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Wk 13 · Sat, Nov 28moves Ohio State up to 40 pts
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Wk 5 · Sat, Oct 3moves Ohio State up to 40 pts
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Wk 9 · Sat, Oct 31moves Texas Tech up to 40 pts
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Wk 10 · Sat, Nov 7moves Texas Tech up to 40 pts
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Wk 3 · Sat, Sep 19moves Georgia up to 40 pts
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Wk 4 · Sat, Sep 26moves LSU up to 40 pts
at

The field today

The published run: 50,000 simulated seasons, rebuilt 2026-09-14. Pick a winner to re-run the season.

1Notre DameFBS Independents · 2-0 · bye 48%87%
2TexasSEC · 2-0 · bye 43%72%
3MiamiACC · 1-0 · bye 32%70%
4IndianaBig Ten · 1-0 · bye 31%64%
5GeorgiaSEC · 1-0 · bye 33%64%
6Ohio StateBig Ten · 1-1 · bye 31%62%
7LSUSEC · 2-0 · bye 23%55%
8Texas TechBig 12 · 1-0 · bye 23%53%
9Texas A&MSEC · 2-0 · bye 16%43%
10AlabamaSEC · 2-0 · bye 14%41%
11Penn StateBig Ten · 2-0 · bye 8.2%37%
12UtahBig 12 · 1-0 · bye 10%32%

Next in line

13BYUBig 12 · 1-0 · bye 10%32%
14FloridaSEC · 1-0 · bye 9.4%30%
15TennesseeSEC · 1-0 · bye 8.8%29%
16VirginiaACC · 1-0 · bye 5.5%26%
17OregonBig Ten · 1-1 · bye 4.6%22%
18Kansas StateBig 12 · 1-0 · bye 5.3%21%

Ordered by chance to make the 12-team field, not by seed. The small figure is the chance of a top-four bye.

Conference title odds

ACC

Miami57%
Virginia11%
SMU9.9%
Louisville6.7%

Big Ten

Ohio State38%
Indiana31%
Penn State10%
Oregon7.6%

Big 12

Texas Tech31%
BYU19%
Utah17%
Kansas State11%

SEC

Georgia26%
Texas18%
LSU16%
Alabama9.7%

American Athletic

Memphis17%
South Florida16%
UTSA15%
North Texas11%

Conference USA

Liberty38%
Delaware20%
Florida International15%
Jacksonville State6.2%

Mid-American

Western Michigan45%
Toledo20%
Miami (OH)11%
Ohio9.7%

Mountain West

New Mexico48%
UNLV18%
Nevada16%
San José State5.3%

Pac-12

Boise State53%
San Diego State14%
Oregon State8.7%
Utah State7.1%

Sun Belt

James Madison31%
Louisiana14%
Louisiana Tech12%
App State7.9%

Every team (138)

Notre Dame2-087%
Texas2-072%
Miami1-070%
Indiana1-064%
Georgia1-064%
Ohio State1-162%
LSU2-055%
Texas Tech1-053%
Texas A&M2-043%
Alabama2-041%
Penn State2-037%
Utah1-032%
BYU1-032%
Florida1-030%
Tennessee1-029%
Virginia1-026%
Oregon1-122%
Kansas State1-021%
Missouri1-021%
Boise State1-120%
Michigan2-018%
USC3-017%
SMU1-017%
New Mexico1-015%
South Carolina1-014%
UCLA2-013%
Oklahoma1-113%
James Madison1-013%
Iowa2-013%
Pittsburgh2-013%
Ole Miss2-010%
Nebraska2-09.9%
Louisville0-19.0%
South Florida2-08.5%
Houston1-07.7%
Virginia Tech1-07.7%
Arizona0-16.7%
Mississippi State2-06.7%
Washington2-06.2%
Duke2-05.3%
Western Michigan0-15.3%
UTSA1-05.2%
Cincinnati1-04.9%
Tulsa2-04.5%
Auburn2-04.2%
Oklahoma State1-14.1%
Maryland1-04.0%
TCU0-14.0%
North Carolina1-03.8%
Memphis2-13.5%
Vanderbilt1-03.1%
San Diego State0-12.7%
Baylor0-12.6%
Northwestern0-02.6%
Liberty0-12.4%
Colorado1-02.4%
UCF0-12.2%
North Texas1-12.1%
Clemson1-11.9%
App State1-01.8%
Nevada1-01.8%
Louisiana0-11.7%
Iowa State0-11.6%
Arizona State0-11.4%
Army0-11.2%
Wake Forest2-01.2%
Navy0-11.1%
Florida State1-11.1%
Kansas0-11.0%
NC State0-10.9%
Toledo0-10.9%
Wisconsin0-10.8%
Fresno State1-10.8%
Colorado State1-00.8%
Michigan State2-00.8%
Louisiana Tech0-10.7%
Troy1-00.7%
Old Dominion0-10.6%
Georgia Tech0-20.6%
Temple0-10.6%
Tulane1-10.6%
Florida Atlantic1-10.5%
Illinois1-10.5%
Georgia Southern0-10.5%
West Virginia1-00.4%
California1-10.4%
Delaware0-10.3%
Florida International1-10.3%
Kentucky0-10.3%
Oregon State0-20.3%
Miami (OH)0-10.3%
UNLV1-20.3%
Utah State0-10.3%
San José State1-10.3%
Ohio1-10.3%
Air Force0-10.2%
South Alabama0-10.2%
Marshall1-10.2%
Minnesota0-10.2%
Wyoming0-10.2%
Massachusetts1-00.1%
Coastal Carolina0-10.1%
Syracuse0-10.1%
Arkansas0-10.1%
Arkansas State0-1<0.1%
East Carolina0-2<0.1%
Washington State0-2<0.1%
Buffalo0-1<0.1%
Texas State0-2<0.1%
Purdue0-1<0.1%
Hawai'i1-2<0.1%
Boston College1-1<0.1%
Stanford1-1<0.1%
Central Michigan0-1<0.1%
North Dakota State2-0<0.1%
Georgia State1-0<0.1%
Rice0-1<0.1%
Southern Miss0-1<0.1%
Kennesaw State0-1<0.1%
Akron0-1<0.1%
Northern Illinois0-1<0.1%
UAB1-1<0.1%
UTEP0-1<0.1%
Middle Tennessee0-1<0.1%
Missouri State0-1<0.1%
Ball State0-1<0.1%
Bowling Green0-1<0.1%
Jacksonville State0-2<0.1%
New Mexico State0-2<0.1%
Rutgers0-2<0.1%
Charlotte0-10%
Eastern Michigan1-20%
Kent State0-10%
Sacramento State0-20%
Sam Houston0-20%
UConn0-10%
UL Monroe0-20%
Western Kentucky0-20%

Loading the simulator…

Playoff What-If

AnalysisAll analysis →

No results set

Tap a team to make it win

Field ↓

Pick the winners

Your team

The remaining games whose result moves some team's playoff odds furthest. Percentages are each side’s chance to win before anything is forced.

Wk 11 · Sat, Nov 14moves Indiana up to 44 pts
at
Wk 13 · Sat, Nov 28moves Georgia up to 44 pts
at
Wk 4 · Fri, Sep 25moves Indiana up to 43 pts
at
Wk 10 · Sat, Nov 7moves Ohio State up to 42 pts
at
Wk 8 · Sat, Oct 24moves Miami up to 42 pts
at
Wk 7 · Sat, Oct 17moves BYU up to 42 pts
at
Wk 8 · Sat, Oct 24moves Indiana up to 42 pts
at
Wk 12 · Sat, Nov 21moves Indiana up to 42 pts
at
Wk 4 · Sat, Sep 26moves Georgia up to 41 pts
at
Wk 7 · Sat, Oct 17moves Ohio State up to 41 pts
at
Wk 7 · Sat, Oct 17moves Georgia up to 41 pts
at
Wk 6 · Sat, Oct 10moves Indiana up to 41 pts
at
Wk 11 · Sat, Nov 14moves Georgia up to 41 pts
at
Wk 5 · Sat, Oct 3moves Georgia up to 41 pts
at
Wk 3 · Fri, Sep 18moves Texas Tech up to 41 pts
at
Wk 9 · Sat, Oct 31moves Ohio State up to 41 pts
at
Wk 11 · Sat, Nov 14moves Ohio State up to 41 pts
at
Wk 12 · Sat, Nov 21moves SMU up to 40 pts
at
Wk 13 · Sat, Nov 28moves Ohio State up to 40 pts
at
Wk 5 · Sat, Oct 3moves Ohio State up to 40 pts
at
Wk 9 · Sat, Oct 31moves Texas Tech up to 40 pts
at
Wk 10 · Sat, Nov 7moves Texas Tech up to 40 pts
at
Wk 3 · Sat, Sep 19moves Georgia up to 40 pts
at
Wk 4 · Sat, Sep 26moves LSU up to 40 pts
at

The field today

The published run: 50,000 simulated seasons, rebuilt 2026-09-14. Pick a winner to re-run the season.

1Notre DameFBS Independents · 2-0 · bye 48%87%
2TexasSEC · 2-0 · bye 43%72%
3MiamiACC · 1-0 · bye 32%70%
4IndianaBig Ten · 1-0 · bye 31%64%
5GeorgiaSEC · 1-0 · bye 33%64%
6Ohio StateBig Ten · 1-1 · bye 31%62%
7LSUSEC · 2-0 · bye 23%55%
8Texas TechBig 12 · 1-0 · bye 23%53%
9Texas A&MSEC · 2-0 · bye 16%43%
10AlabamaSEC · 2-0 · bye 14%41%
11Penn StateBig Ten · 2-0 · bye 8.2%37%
12UtahBig 12 · 1-0 · bye 10%32%

Next in line

13BYUBig 12 · 1-0 · bye 10%32%
14FloridaSEC · 1-0 · bye 9.4%30%
15TennesseeSEC · 1-0 · bye 8.8%29%
16VirginiaACC · 1-0 · bye 5.5%26%
17OregonBig Ten · 1-1 · bye 4.6%22%
18Kansas StateBig 12 · 1-0 · bye 5.3%21%

Ordered by chance to make the 12-team field, not by seed. The small figure is the chance of a top-four bye.

Conference title odds

ACC

Miami57%
Virginia11%
SMU9.9%
Louisville6.7%

Big Ten

Ohio State38%
Indiana31%
Penn State10%
Oregon7.6%

Big 12

Texas Tech31%
BYU19%
Utah17%
Kansas State11%

SEC

Georgia26%
Texas18%
LSU16%
Alabama9.7%

American Athletic

Memphis17%
South Florida16%
UTSA15%
North Texas11%

Conference USA

Liberty38%
Delaware20%
Florida International15%
Jacksonville State6.2%

Mid-American

Western Michigan45%
Toledo20%
Miami (OH)11%
Ohio9.7%

Mountain West

New Mexico48%
UNLV18%
Nevada16%
San José State5.3%

Pac-12

Boise State53%
San Diego State14%
Oregon State8.7%
Utah State7.1%

Sun Belt

James Madison31%
Louisiana14%
Louisiana Tech12%
App State7.9%

Every team (138)

Notre Dame2-087%
Texas2-072%
Miami1-070%
Indiana1-064%
Georgia1-064%
Ohio State1-162%
LSU2-055%
Texas Tech1-053%
Texas A&M2-043%
Alabama2-041%
Penn State2-037%
Utah1-032%
BYU1-032%
Florida1-030%
Tennessee1-029%
Virginia1-026%
Oregon1-122%
Kansas State1-021%
Missouri1-021%
Boise State1-120%
Michigan2-018%
USC3-017%
SMU1-017%
New Mexico1-015%
South Carolina1-014%
UCLA2-013%
Oklahoma1-113%
James Madison1-013%
Iowa2-013%
Pittsburgh2-013%
Ole Miss2-010%
Nebraska2-09.9%
Louisville0-19.0%
South Florida2-08.5%
Houston1-07.7%
Virginia Tech1-07.7%
Arizona0-16.7%
Mississippi State2-06.7%
Washington2-06.2%
Duke2-05.3%
Western Michigan0-15.3%
UTSA1-05.2%
Cincinnati1-04.9%
Tulsa2-04.5%
Auburn2-04.2%
Oklahoma State1-14.1%
Maryland1-04.0%
TCU0-14.0%
North Carolina1-03.8%
Memphis2-13.5%
Vanderbilt1-03.1%
San Diego State0-12.7%
Baylor0-12.6%
Northwestern0-02.6%
Liberty0-12.4%
Colorado1-02.4%
UCF0-12.2%
North Texas1-12.1%
Clemson1-11.9%
App State1-01.8%
Nevada1-01.8%
Louisiana0-11.7%
Iowa State0-11.6%
Arizona State0-11.4%
Army0-11.2%
Wake Forest2-01.2%
Navy0-11.1%
Florida State1-11.1%
Kansas0-11.0%
NC State0-10.9%
Toledo0-10.9%
Wisconsin0-10.8%
Fresno State1-10.8%
Colorado State1-00.8%
Michigan State2-00.8%
Louisiana Tech0-10.7%
Troy1-00.7%
Old Dominion0-10.6%
Georgia Tech0-20.6%
Temple0-10.6%
Tulane1-10.6%
Florida Atlantic1-10.5%
Illinois1-10.5%
Georgia Southern0-10.5%
West Virginia1-00.4%
California1-10.4%
Delaware0-10.3%
Florida International1-10.3%
Kentucky0-10.3%
Oregon State0-20.3%
Miami (OH)0-10.3%
UNLV1-20.3%
Utah State0-10.3%
San José State1-10.3%
Ohio1-10.3%
Air Force0-10.2%
South Alabama0-10.2%
Marshall1-10.2%
Minnesota0-10.2%
Wyoming0-10.2%
Massachusetts1-00.1%
Coastal Carolina0-10.1%
Syracuse0-10.1%
Arkansas0-10.1%
Arkansas State0-1<0.1%
East Carolina0-2<0.1%
Washington State0-2<0.1%
Buffalo0-1<0.1%
Texas State0-2<0.1%
Purdue0-1<0.1%
Hawai'i1-2<0.1%
Boston College1-1<0.1%
Stanford1-1<0.1%
Central Michigan0-1<0.1%
North Dakota State2-0<0.1%
Georgia State1-0<0.1%
Rice0-1<0.1%
Southern Miss0-1<0.1%
Kennesaw State0-1<0.1%
Akron0-1<0.1%
Northern Illinois0-1<0.1%
UAB1-1<0.1%
UTEP0-1<0.1%
Middle Tennessee0-1<0.1%
Missouri State0-1<0.1%
Ball State0-1<0.1%
Bowling Green0-1<0.1%
Jacksonville State0-2<0.1%
New Mexico State0-2<0.1%
Rutgers0-2<0.1%
Charlotte0-10%
Eastern Michigan1-20%
Kent State0-10%
Sacramento State0-20%
Sam Houston0-20%
UConn0-10%
UL Monroe0-20%
Western Kentucky0-20%