#15Tyler Goodson

RB·Iowa·20201.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Tyler Goodson is a Featured Back for Iowa. Tyler's 2020 season ranks in the 15th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 159 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tyler Goodson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Rushing

762 Rush yards7 Rush TD143 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

15 Receptions152 Rec yards0 Rec TD10.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs RB peers

Efficiency15
Volume85
Explosiveness46
Consistency55
Receiving45

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)15th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency55th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Peak game: 0.56 EPA/play in Wk 15 vs Wisconsin (SP+ 27).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
8	@Purdue	L20-24	5.9	16	77	4.8	0	5	59	0	0.04
9	vsNorthwestern	L20-21	9.0	13	43	3.3	1	2	8	0	-0.07
10	vsMichigan State	W49-7	-2.4	14	113	8.1	2	—	—	—	0.33
11	@Minnesota	W35-7	4.7	20	142	7.1	2	1	12	0	0.53
12	@Penn State	W41-21	13.9	20	78	3.9	1	1	8	0	-0.10
13	vsNebraska	W26-20	7.7	30	111	3.7	0	2	21	0	-0.05
14	@Illinois	W35-21	-5.4	19	92	4.8	0	2	16	0	0.10
15	vsWisconsin	W28-7	26.5	11	106	9.6	1	2	28	0	0.56

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

29.8%

Passing plays

7.4%

Rushing plays

49.8%

Standard downs

32.8%

Passing downs

23.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.15
Passing downs: 0.17
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.66 / 0.09

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 · 8 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.