#24Ty Johnson

RB·Maryland·20162.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Ty Johnson is a Explosive Back for Maryland. Ty's 2016 season ranks in the 93th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 113 plays — a elite rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ty Johnson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Rushing

1004 Rush yards6 Rush TD110 Carries9.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

16 Receptions206 Rec yards1 Rec TD12.9 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Kick returns31 KR yards0 KR TD1 Punt returns8 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs RB peers

Efficiency93
Volume42
Explosiveness100
Consistency50
Receiving61

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)93th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency50th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among RBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.29 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 2.43 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Purdue (SP+ -11).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Devon Johnson	Marshall	2014	208	0.520	6.0	108.2
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2015	228	0.450	5.8	102.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsHoward	W52-13	—	6	48	8.0	1	3	23	0	0.50
2	@Florida International	W41-14	-19.0	8	34	4.3	0	2	21	0	-0.00
3	@UCF	W30-24	-2.2	7	47	6.7	0	—	—	—	-0.02
5	vsPurdue	W50-7	-11.0	7	204	29.1	2	—	—	—	2.43
6	@Penn State	L14-38	19.0	5	11	2.2	0	2	69	1	0.58
7	vsMinnesota	L10-31	12.6	5	23	4.6	0	—	—	—	-0.22
8	vsMichigan State	W28-17	7.4	9	115	12.8	0	1	16	0	1.01
9	@Indiana	L36-42	4.6	13	142	10.9	1	1	6	0	1.03
10	@Michigan	L3-59	24.4	9	11	1.2	0	2	42	0	-0.16
11	vsOhio State	L3-62	22.4	8	21	2.6	0	2	3	0	-0.24
12	@Nebraska	L7-28	10.3	7	21	3.0	0	—	—	—	-0.38
13	vsRutgers	W31-13	-14.9	11	168	15.3	0	1	11	0	0.70
1	vsBoston College	L30-36	-1.6	15	159	10.6	2	2	15	0	0.57

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

14.6%

Passing plays

4.9%

Rushing plays

22.6%

Standard downs

17.3%

Passing downs

9.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.23
Passing downs: 1.11
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.62 / 0.40

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.