#9Trace McSorley

QB·Penn State·2017 201612.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Trace McSorley is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Penn State. Trace's 2017 season ranks in the 65th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 555 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Trace McSorley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

284/427 Comp/Att3570 Pass yards28 Pass TD10 INT66.5% Comp %

Rushing

491 Rush yards11 Rush TD144 Carries3.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency65
Volume100
Dual-Threat66
Consistency79
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)65th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.09 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Georgia State (SP+ -14).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2015	577	0.561	14.1	323.7
J.T. Barrett	Ohio State	2017	576	0.593	14.1	341.6
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsAkron	W52-0	-17.6	18/25	280	2	1	82.8	48	1	0.50
2	vsPittsburgh	W33-14	6.0	15/28	164	3	1	70.4	65	0	0.18
3	vsGeorgia State	W56-0	-14.0	18/23	309	4	0	98.7	24	1	1.09
4	@Iowa	W21-19	9.8	31/48	284	1	1	34.6	61	0	0.06
5	vsIndiana	W45-14	10.2	23/36	315	2	1	41.1	-19	1	0.09
6	@Northwestern	W31-7	11.2	25/34	245	1	0	62.9	-1	1	0.15
8	vsMichigan	W42-13	19.6	17/26	282	1	1	83.4	76	3	0.54
9	@Ohio State	L38-39	30.9	17/29	192	2	0	77.2	49	1	0.33
10	@Michigan State	L24-27	13.8	26/47	381	3	3	—	2	0	0.26
11	vsRutgers	W35-6	-5.5	16/21	214	2	0	87.2	44	1	0.27
12	vsNebraska	W56-44	2.5	24/36	325	3	0	91.9	46	1	0.64
13	@Maryland	W66-3	-4.5	22/33	237	2	0	91.1	36	1	0.39
1	vsWashington	W35-28	22.1	32/41	342	2	2	90.4	60	0	0.45

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

62.8%

Passing plays

93.8%

Rushing plays

28.5%

Standard downs

56.2%

Passing downs

78.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.10
Passing downs: 0.69
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.35 / 0.23

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2017 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Penn State	11.2	0.524	—	301.2
2017	Penn State	12.7	0.513	-0.01	321.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.