#9Trace McSorley

QB·Penn State·2017 201611.2 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Trace McSorley is a 2-year Clutch Passer for Penn State. Trace's 2016 season ranks in the 53th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 509 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Trace McSorley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2016 Production

Passing

224/387 Comp/Att3614 Pass yards29 Pass TD8 INT57.9% Comp %

Rushing

365 Rush yards7 Rush TD146 Carries2.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2016 · vs QB peers

Efficiency53
Volume100
Dual-Threat36
Consistency81
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)53th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.26 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.79 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Michigan State (SP+ 7).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Baker Mayfield	Oklahoma	2015	577	0.561	14.1	323.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsKent State	W33-13	-12.0	16/31	209	2	0	37.2	47	0	0.18
2	@Pittsburgh	L39-42	13.1	24/35	332	1	1	50.0	-17	0	0.16
3	vsTemple	W34-27	11.9	18/24	287	1	1	69.1	8	1	0.42
4	@Michigan	L10-49	24.4	16/27	121	1	1	10.0	-6	0	0.03
5	vsMinnesota	W29-26	12.6	19/41	335	1	0	73.7	73	1	0.41
6	vsMaryland	W38-14	-0.6	10/19	152	2	0	74.8	81	1	0.41
8	vsOhio State	W24-21	22.4	8/23	154	1	0	30.9	63	1	0.04
9	@Purdue	W62-24	-11.0	12/23	228	3	0	69.8	2	0	0.47
10	vsIowa	W41-14	10.3	11/18	240	2	0	79.3	40	1	0.38
11	@Indiana	W45-31	4.6	16/30	332	2	2	84.7	13	1	0.55
12	@Rutgers	W39-0	-14.9	17/33	210	1	0	38.4	55	0	0.06
13	vsMichigan State	W45-12	7.4	17/23	376	4	0	93.4	13	0	0.79
14	vsWisconsin	W38-31	16.1	22/31	384	4	0	93.7	-20	0	0.63
1	vsUSC	L49-52	23.6	18/29	254	4	3	65.1	13	1	0.63

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

56.0%

Passing plays

98.8%

Rushing plays

24.0%

Standard downs

47.2%

Passing downs

75.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.56
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.41 / 0.08

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2017 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Penn State	11.2	0.524	—	301.2
2017	Penn State	12.7	0.513	-0.01	321.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.