#14Sean Clifford

QB·Penn State·2022 2020 20197.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Sean Clifford is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Penn State. Sean's 2020 season ranks in the 35th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 336 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sean Clifford's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

151/250 Comp/Att1877 Pass yards16 Pass TD9 INT60.4% Comp %

Rushing

335 Rush yards3 Rush TD99 Carries3.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency35
Volume100
Dual-Threat70
Consistency80
Clutch98

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)35th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.56 EPA/play in Wk 16 vs Illinois (SP+ -5).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
8	@Indiana	L35-36	11.2	24/35	238	3	2	119	1	0.50
9	vsOhio State	L25-38	28.4	17/29	275	3	1	5	0	0.39
10	vsMaryland	L19-35	-0.1	27/57	340	3	2	26	0	0.23
11	@Nebraska	L23-30	7.7	5/8	37	0	1	19	0	0.18
12	vsIowa	L21-41	16.3	13/22	174	2	2	13	0	-0.01
13	@Michigan	W27-17	10.7	17/28	163	0	0	73	1	0.31
14	@Rutgers	W23-7	-10.5	15/22	133	1	1	21	0	0.02
15	vsMichigan State	W39-24	-2.4	17/27	232	2	0	48	1	0.44
16	vsIllinois	W56-21	-5.4	16/22	285	2	0	11	0	0.56

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

49.3%

Passing plays

81.7%

Rushing plays

20.5%

Standard downs

41.3%

Passing downs

68.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.49
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2022 · 34 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Penn State	7.8	0.507	—	217.9
2020	Penn State	7.1	0.456	-0.05	168.2
2022	Penn State	7.5	0.484	+0.03	216.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.