#14Sean Clifford

QB·Penn State·2022 2020 20197.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Sean Clifford is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Penn State. Sean's 2019 season ranks in the 53th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 409 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Sean Clifford's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

189/319 Comp/Att2654 Pass yards23 Pass TD7 INT59.2% Comp %

Rushing

402 Rush yards5 Rush TD116 Carries3.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency53
Volume100
Dual-Threat79
Consistency76
Clutch36

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)53th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency76th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:→ Stable

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.23 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.96 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Maryland (SP+ -6).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsIdaho	W79-7	—	14/23	280	2	0	58.1	57	0	0.49
2	vsBuffalo	W45-13	-2.0	16/22	279	4	0	87.3	51	0	0.60
3	vsPittsburgh	W17-10	4.1	14/30	222	0	0	48.8	5	0	0.14
5	@Maryland	W59-0	-6.3	26/31	398	3	1	98.6	54	1	0.96
6	vsPurdue	W35-7	-0.7	20/29	264	3	1	90.4	33	1	0.46
7	@Iowa	W17-12	16.7	12/24	117	1	0	42.1	52	0	0.07
8	vsMichigan	W28-21	20.7	14/25	182	3	0	60.3	17	1	0.20
9	@Michigan State	W28-7	7.2	18/32	189	4	1	77.9	11	0	0.13
11	@Minnesota	L26-31	19.4	23/43	340	1	3	—	39	0	0.20
12	vsIndiana	W34-27	12.8	11/23	179	1	0	—	55	2	0.60
13	@Ohio State	L17-28	35.4	10/17	71	0	0	—	0	0	0.01
1	vsMemphis	W53-39	18.0	11/20	133	1	1	—	28	0	0.22

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.2%

Passing plays

90.9%

Rushing plays

21.2%

Standard downs

44.5%

Passing downs

69.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.32
Passing downs: 0.30
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.32 / 0.29

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2022 · 34 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Penn State	7.8	0.507	—	217.9
2020	Penn State	7.1	0.456	-0.05	168.2
2022	Penn State	7.5	0.484	+0.03	216.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.