#8Lamar Jackson

QB·Louisville·2017 201616.8 pts line value1st Round

Lamar Jackson is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Louisville. Lamar's 2017 season ranks in the 75th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 617 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Lamar Jackson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Passing

254/430 Comp/Att3660 Pass yards27 Pass TD10 INT59.1% Comp %

Rushing

1601 Rush yards18 Rush TD232 Carries6.9 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs QB peers

Efficiency75
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency88
Clutch80

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)75th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency88th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (75th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.81 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Murray State.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Brandon Doughty	Western Kentucky	2014	612	0.620	17.8	379.4
Chad Kelly	Ole Miss	2015	583	0.635	17.5	370.2
Dwayne Haskins	Ohio State	2018	652	0.643	17.5	419.0
Caleb Williams	USC	2022	671	0.620	17.0	415.9
Jared Goff	California	2015	559	0.610	15.7	341.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsPurdue	W35-28	5.8	30/46	378	2	0	62.4	107	0	0.39
2	@North Carolina	W47-35	4.3	25/39	393	3	0	95.5	132	3	0.58
3	vsClemson	L21-47	26.4	21/42	317	3	1	27.2	64	0	0.12
4	vsKent State	W42-3	-20.2	18/22	299	2	2	78.7	34	1	0.67
5	vsMurray State	W55-10	—	18/26	249	3	0	98.7	100	1	0.81
6	@NC State	L25-39	12.9	26/47	354	1	1	64.6	73	2	0.31
7	vsBoston College	L42-45	4.6	19/39	332	2	1	81.8	180	3	0.42
8	@Florida State	W31-28	22.8	13/21	156	1	0	85.6	178	1	0.37
9	@Wake Forest	L32-42	10.5	27/44	330	1	1	63.4	161	3	0.34
11	vsVirginia	W38-21	0.8	15/26	195	3	0	94.6	147	1	0.54
12	vsSyracuse	W56-10	4.0	14/26	270	2	0	92.5	111	2	0.70
13	@Kentucky	W44-17	2.7	15/21	216	2	0	70.9	156	0	0.60
1	vsMississippi State	L27-31	16.0	13/31	171	2	4	47.4	158	1	0.28

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

67.5%

Passing plays

92.2%

Rushing plays

44.3%

Standard downs

64.2%

Passing downs

74.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.36
Passing downs: 0.56
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.36 / 0.57

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2017 · 26 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Louisville	16.1	0.543	—	387.6
2017	Louisville	16.8	0.576	+0.03	384.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.