#12Brandon Doughty

QB·Western Kentucky·2015 2014 201317.8 pts line value1st Round

Brandon Doughty is a 3-year Clutch Passer for Western Kentucky. Brandon's 2014 season ranks in the 85th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 559 plays — a above-average rate for the QB. Brandon's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brandon Doughty's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

375/552 Comp/Att4830 Pass yards49 Pass TD10 INT67.9% Comp %

Rushing

-52 Rush yards2 Rush TD39 Carries-1.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency85
Volume100
Dual-Threat26
Consistency80
Clutch74

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)85th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (85th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.10 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.90 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Old Dominion (SP+ -13).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Chad Kelly	Ole Miss	2015	583	0.635	17.5	370.2
Mason Rudolph	Oklahoma State	2017	592	0.655	18.4	387.6
Jalen Hurts	Oklahoma	2019	557	0.708	17.3	394.2
Justin Fields	Ohio State	2019	540	0.713	17.0	385.1
Kyle Trask	Florida	2020	536	0.648	16.3	347.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsBowling Green	W59-31	-5.4	46/56	569	6	0	93.5	-2	0	0.80
2	@Illinois	L34-42	0.4	28/48	297	2	1	38.0	-1	0	-0.04
3	@Middle Tennessee	L47-50	-8.7	43/66	593	4	1	89.1	-14	0	0.49
5	@Navy	W36-27	3.4	38/54	387	2	1	74.6	3	1	0.32
6	vsUAB	L39-42	-4.2	25/37	319	2	0	74.4	16	0	0.41
8	@Florida Atlantic	L38-45	-10.4	28/44	335	3	1	60.2	-12	0	0.24
9	vsOld Dominion	W66-51	-12.7	23/26	371	5	0	98.9	-2	0	0.90
10	@Louisiana Tech	L10-59	-1.7	14/35	134	1	4	4.5	-23	0	-0.20
11	vsUTEP	W35-27	-12.0	23/34	324	3	0	75.5	-12	0	0.55
12	vsArmy	W52-24	-16.9	16/25	178	3	0	85.6	6	1	0.47
13	vsUTSA	W45-7	-3.4	26/35	346	5	0	93.7	0	0	0.69
14	@Marshall	W67-66	16.8	34/50	491	8	2	86.6	-15	0	0.62
1	vsCentral Michigan	W49-48	-5.2	31/42	486	5	0	98.7	4	0	0.70

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

59.0%

Passing plays

98.9%

Rushing plays

6.5%

Standard downs

51.0%

Passing downs

78.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.42
Passing downs: 0.59
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.50 / 0.03

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2015 · 38 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Western Kentucky	2.5	0.250	—	83.8
2014	Western Kentucky	17.8	0.620	+0.37	379.4
2015	Western Kentucky	18.2	0.690	+0.07	394.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.