Chad Kelly is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Ole Miss. Chad's 2015 season ranks in the 90th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 522 plays — a elite rate for the QB.
What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.46Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.05Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.51Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Chad Kelly's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
2015 Production
Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers
- Efficiency90
- Volume100
- Dual-Threat100
- Consistency86
- Clutch54
A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.13 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
- ▸Peak game: 0.99 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Fresno State (SP+ -13).
Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.45
- Passing downs
- 0.52
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.44 / 0.65
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.