#12Brandon Doughty

QB·Western Kentucky·2015 2014 201318.2 pts line value1st Round

Brandon Doughty is a 3-year Clutch Passer for Western Kentucky. Brandon's 2015 season ranks in the 93th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 526 plays — a elite rate for the QB. Brandon's production has improved each season, a positive development trajectory.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brandon Doughty's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Passing

388/540 Comp/Att5055 Pass yards48 Pass TD9 INT71.9% Comp %

Rushing

-122 Rush yards1 Rush TD27 Carries-4.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs QB peers

Efficiency93
Volume100
Dual-Threat0
Consistency88
Clutch75

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)93th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency88th %ile · above avg

Career trajectory:↑ Rising

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Career trajectory is upward — WEPA value has improved season over season.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸10 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.13 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.71 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Rice (SP+ -15).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jalen Hurts	Oklahoma	2019	557	0.708	17.3	394.2
Justin Fields	Ohio State	2019	540	0.713	17.0	385.1
C.J. Stroud	Ohio State	2022	476	0.746	17.6	355.2
Bo Nix	Oregon	2023	540	0.722	16.7	390.0
Mason Rudolph	Oklahoma State	2017	592	0.655	18.4	387.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Vanderbilt	W14-12	-1.6	19/30	209	1	0	28.6	-32	0	0.15
2	vsLouisiana Tech	W41-38	8.3	28/38	441	1	0	86.6	-6	0	0.52
3	@Indiana	L35-38	0.4	35/46	484	3	2	90.8	11	0	0.69
4	vsMiami (OH)	W56-14	-13.5	33/41	457	6	0	96.6	-29	0	0.70
5	@Rice	W49-10	-14.6	28/38	409	4	0	97.3	—	—	0.71
6	vsMiddle Tennessee	W58-28	-4.6	28/36	359	5	1	98.7	-7	0	0.59
7	@North Texas	W55-28	-25.0	26/37	350	4	1	83.9	5	0	0.52
8	@LSU	L20-48	19.7	37/61	325	3	1	35.5	-10	0	0.10
9	@Old Dominion	W55-30	-14.8	21/28	276	3	0	93.5	-6	0	0.54
10	vsFlorida Atlantic	W35-19	-9.8	24/29	280	4	1	89.4	—	—	0.65
12	@Florida International	W63-7	-16.6	16/21	224	3	0	96.4	-12	0	—
13	vsMarshall	W49-28	3.5	27/39	370	5	0	81.2	-25	0	0.47
14	vsSouthern Miss	W45-28	1.4	34/52	410	3	1	77.3	4	1	0.47
1	vsSouth Florida	W45-35	3.6	32/44	461	3	2	61.2	-15	0	0.33

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

55.9%

Passing plays

97.2%

Rushing plays

4.3%

Standard downs

49.6%

Passing downs

71.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.41
Passing downs: 0.59
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.53 / -0.92

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2015 · 38 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Western Kentucky	2.5	0.250	—	83.8
2014	Western Kentucky	17.8	0.620	+0.37	379.4
2015	Western Kentucky	18.2	0.690	+0.07	394.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.