#13Kaytron Allen

RB·Penn State·2025 20222.7 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Kaytron Allen is a 2-year Explosive Back for Penn State. Kaytron's 2022 season ranks in the 40th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 187 plays — a developing rate for the RB. A four-star recruit in the class of 2022, Kaytron has shown flashes of the talent that made him a coveted recruit.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kaytron Allen's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2022

★★★★★

4-Star · High major target

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.9385
National rank: #155
High school: IMG Academy
Hometown: Bradenton, FL

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2022 Production

Rushing

867 Rush yards10 Rush TD167 Carries5.2 Yards/carry

Receiving

20 Receptions188 Rec yards1 Rec TD9.4 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Kick returns37 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs RB peers

Efficiency40
Volume60
Explosiveness44
Consistency80
Receiving49

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)40th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.55 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Auburn (SP+ 5).

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Purdue	W35-31	7.7	8	31	3.9	0	1	9	0	0.21
2	vsOhio	W46-10	-4.6	6	23	3.8	0	1	22	0	0.40
3	@Auburn	W41-12	5.1	9	52	5.8	2	—	—	—	0.55
4	vsCentral Michigan	W33-14	-14.0	13	111	8.5	1	1	7	0	0.37
5	vsNorthwestern	W17-7	-13.4	21	86	4.1	0	—	—	—	0.01
7	@Michigan	L17-41	32.0	6	16	2.7	1	1	1	0	0.17
8	vsMinnesota	W45-17	16.0	15	77	5.1	0	3	13	0	0.28
9	vsOhio State	L31-44	31.1	12	76	6.3	1	2	13	1	0.47
10	@Indiana	W45-14	-7.1	18	86	4.8	3	2	72	0	0.39
11	vsMaryland	W30-0	11.2	16	73	4.6	0	1	1	0	0.10
12	@Rutgers	W55-10	-9.1	11	117	10.6	1	2	10	0	0.32
13	vsMichigan State	W35-16	1.2	21	82	3.9	0	3	24	0	0.02
1	vsUtah	W35-21	19.2	11	37	3.4	1	3	16	0	0.06

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

21.1%

Passing plays

5.7%

Rushing plays

35.6%

Standard downs

23.6%

Passing downs

15.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.50
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.28 / 0.23

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 — 2025 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2022	Penn State	2.7	0.310	—	55.2
2025	Penn State	2.8	0.240	-0.07	48.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.