#25Jalin Moore

RB·App State·20172.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Jalin Moore is a Featured Back for App State. Jalin's 2017 season ranks in the 38th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 196 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jalin Moore's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Rushing

1037 Rush yards12 Rush TD183 Carries5.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

12 Receptions163 Rec yards1 Rec TD13.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers

Efficiency38
Volume75
Explosiveness54
Consistency39
Receiving35

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)38th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency39th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.32 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.74 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs UL Monroe (SP+ -13).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Georgia	L10-31	26.7	13	38	2.9	0	4	34	0	-0.04
2	vsSavannah State	W54-7	—	9	57	6.3	1	1	20	0	0.62
3	@Texas State	W20-13	-23.5	9	14	1.6	0	1	9	0	-0.41
4	vsWake Forest	L19-20	10.5	16	27	1.7	0	—	—	—	-0.53
6	vsNew Mexico State	W45-31	-9.4	19	241	12.7	2	—	—	—	0.68
7	@Idaho	W23-20	-12.4	17	49	2.9	0	1	-2	0	-0.04
8	vsCoastal Carolina	W37-29	—	8	23	2.9	1	1	9	0	0.13
10	@UL Monroe	L45-52	-12.9	21	114	5.4	2	2	84	1	0.74
13	@Georgia State	W31-10	-14.0	32	239	7.5	1	2	9	0	0.31
14	vsLouisiana	W63-14	-15.8	17	110	6.5	2	—	—	—	0.49
1	vsToledo	W34-0	6.6	22	125	5.7	3	—	—	—	0.26

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

26.3%

Passing plays

5.0%

Rushing plays

42.9%

Standard downs

29.8%

Passing downs

18.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.16
Passing downs: 0.55
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.64 / 0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.