#1Isaac Brown

RB·Louisville·20242.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Isaac Brown is a Explosive Back for Louisville. Isaac's 2024 season ranks in the 40th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 186 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Isaac Brown's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2024

★★★★★

3-Star · Developmental

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.8869
National rank: #526
High school: Homestead
Hometown: Homestead, FL

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2024 Production

Rushing

1173 Rush yards11 Rush TD165 Carries7.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

30 Receptions152 Rec yards1 Rec TD5.1 Yards/rec

Returns

11 Kick returns193 KR yards0 KR TD2 Punt returns9 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency40
Volume66
Explosiveness82
Consistency42
Receiving54

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)40th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency42th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.28 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.42 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Austin Peay.

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsAustin Peay	W62-0	—	5	123	24.6	1	1	9	0	1.42
2	vsJacksonville State	W49-14	-1.0	8	43	5.4	0	2	12	0	0.05
4	vsGeorgia Tech	W31-19	1.9	3	7	2.3	0	1	3	0	-0.27
5	@Notre Dame	L24-31	23.9	13	72	5.5	0	4	23	1	0.16
6	vsSMU	L27-34	17.5	10	117	11.7	0	5	44	0	0.70
7	@Virginia	W24-20	-5.1	20	146	7.3	2	1	1	0	0.26
8	vsMiami	L45-52	21.6	9	56	6.2	1	6	23	0	-0.11
9	@Boston College	W31-27	1.2	18	85	4.7	2	3	17	0	0.19
10	@Clemson	W33-21	13.3	20	151	7.6	1	3	-1	0	-0.00
12	@Stanford	L35-38	-8.2	2	3	1.5	0	—	—	—	-0.26
13	vsPittsburgh	W37-9	4.9	13	93	7.2	2	1	9	0	0.37
14	@Kentucky	W41-14	5.5	26	178	6.8	2	3	12	0	0.22
20	vsWashington	W35-34	3.1	18	99	5.5	0	—	—	—	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

23.1%

Passing plays

6.9%

Rushing plays

40.6%

Standard downs

26.9%

Passing downs

14.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.21
Passing downs: 0.09
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.03 / 0.23

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.