#10Colin Reardon

WR·Kent State·2014 20130.3 pts line value1st Round

Colin Reardon is a 2-year Workhorse Receiver WR for Kent State. Colin's 2013 season ranks in the 71th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 358 plays — a average rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Colin Reardon's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

186/316 Comp/Att1957 Pass yards12 Pass TD9 INT58.9% Comp %

Rushing

336 Rush yards2 Rush TD88 Carries3.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs WR peers

Efficiency71
Volume100
Explosiveness36
Consistency33
Pass-Down99

Player type

Workhorse Receiver WR

The primary target in the offense — used across all situations and down-types at an elite volume.

Top target shareAll-down utilityOffense runs through this player

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)71th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency33th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used WRs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.09 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.45 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Ball State (SP+ 8).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
D.J. Foster	Arizona State	2014	174	0.200	1.0	34.8
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2017	161	0.150	0.0	24.2
Zach Abey	Navy	2017	275	0.370	2.9	101.8
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2019	153	0.210	1.9	32.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · EPA per play, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	EPA/play	Pass	Rush
1	vsLiberty	W17-10	—	0.18	0.29	-0.11
2	vsBowling Green	L22-41	9.8	0.08	0.03	0.20
3	@LSU	L13-45	28.7	0.39	0.41	0.29
4	@Penn State	L0-34	8.9	-0.18	-0.10	-0.68
5	@Western Michigan	W32-14	-25.5	0.11	0.09	0.17
6	vsNorthern Illinois	L24-38	6.3	-0.32	-0.32	-0.31
7	@Ball State	L24-27	7.5	0.45	0.34	0.71
9	vsBuffalo	L21-41	-9.0	0.10	0.14	-0.03
10	@Akron	L7-16	-15.3	-0.28	-0.28	-0.30
12	vsMiami (OH)	W24-6	-29.0	0.32	0.41	0.01
13	@Ohio	W44-13	-11.4	0.44	0.43	0.47

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

52.2%

Passing plays

90.4%

Rushing plays

20.4%

Standard downs

44.2%

Passing downs

68.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.02
Passing downs: 0.28
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.11 / 0.09

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2014 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Kent State	0.3	0.060	—	4.6
2014	Kent State	0.3	0.200	+0.14	10.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.