#10Colin Reardon

WR·Kent State·2014 20130.3 pts line value1st Round

Colin Reardon is a 2-year Workhorse Receiver WR for Kent State. Colin's 2014 season ranks in the 29th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 429 plays — a developing rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Colin Reardon's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

228/400 Comp/Att2466 Pass yards14 Pass TD16 INT57.0% Comp %

Rushing

148 Rush yards2 Rush TD59 Carries2.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs WR peers

Efficiency29
Volume100
Explosiveness18
Consistency27
Pass-Down100

Player type

Workhorse Receiver WR

The primary target in the offense — used across all situations and down-types at an elite volume.

Top target shareAll-down utilityOffense runs through this player

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)29th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency27th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs WR peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used WRs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.65 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Army (SP+ -17).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Zach Abey	Navy	2017	275	0.370	2.9	101.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · EPA per play, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	EPA/play	Pass	Rush
1	vsOhio	L14-17	-11.7	0.33	0.38	-0.01
2	vsSouth Alabama	L13-23	-4.3	0.16	0.20	-0.19
3	@Ohio State	L0-66	25.8	-0.24	-0.29	0.24
5	@Virginia	L13-45	4.0	0.16	0.24	-0.30
6	@Northern Illinois	L14-17	-0.6	0.33	0.38	0.13
7	vsMassachusetts	L17-40	-20.2	-0.14	-0.24	1.26
8	vsArmy	W39-17	-16.9	0.65	0.64	0.70
9	@Miami (OH)	L3-10	-18.7	-0.03	-0.02	-0.09
11	vsToledo	L20-30	2.3	-0.24	-0.19	-1.39
12	@Bowling Green	L20-30	-5.4	0.05	0.08	-1.10
14	vsAkron	W27-24	-9.4	0.12	0.14	-0.03

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

62.7%

Passing plays

89.1%

Rushing plays

19.2%

Standard downs

57.2%

Passing downs

72.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.01
Passing downs: 0.40
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.18 / 0.07

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2014 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	Kent State	0.3	0.060	—	4.6
2014	Kent State	0.3	0.200	+0.14	10.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.