CJ Donaldson

RB·West Virginia·20233.3 pts line value

CJ Donaldson is a Explosive Back for West Virginia. CJ's 2023 season ranks in the 80th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 168 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So CJ Donaldson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

798 Rush yards11 Rush TD171 Carries4.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

9 Receptions59 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency80
Volume59
Explosiveness34
Consistency71
Receiving23

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)80th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency71th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (80th percentile).
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.30 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.98 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs BYU (SP+ -3).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Penn State	L15-38	23.5	18	81	4.5	1	1	3	0	0.38
2	vsDuquesne	W56-17	—	13	56	4.3	0	—	—	—	0.13
3	vsPittsburgh	W17-6	-7.3	18	102	5.7	1	—	—	—	0.45
4	vsTexas Tech	W20-13	6.1	15	48	3.2	1	2	11	0	-0.08
5	@TCU	W24-21	7.9	22	61	2.8	1	—	—	—	0.01
7	@Houston	L39-41	-7.8	17	66	3.9	1	2	25	0	0.13
8	vsOklahoma State	L34-48	6.7	13	39	3.0	1	2	11	0	0.06
9	@UCF	W41-28	3.4	17	121	7.1	1	1	9	0	0.61
10	vsBYU	W37-7	-3.3	14	102	7.3	2	—	—	—	0.98
11	@Oklahoma	L20-59	15.0	14	79	5.6	1	1	0	0	0.48
12	vsCincinnati	W42-21	-6.8	5	20	4.0	1	—	—	—	0.63
13	@Baylor	W34-31	-8.3	5	23	4.6	0	—	—	—	0.07

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

20.6%

Passing plays

2.6%

Rushing plays

31.4%

Standard downs

23.9%

Passing downs

12.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.31
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.35 / 0.29

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.