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West Virginia

West Virginia Mountaineers

Big 12·2-0·
Compare
Elo
1365#102
SP+
-4.4#82
FPI
-0.8
AP
NR
Nextvs Virginia · Wk 3Win prob 5%Model +25.6
Talent #49 (707.6)Recruiting class #2514% production returning

Team Leaders

Latest on West Virginia

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Deuce Bailey was responsible for 18 of Coastal Carolina's 24 points

Matchup · 6d ago

West Virginia's run defense meets a rebuilt Coastal offense

Matchup · Sep 2

Roster · 121 players

FR 52SO 16JR 29SR 24
#PlayerPosClHtWt
3Michael Hawkins Jr.QBSO6'1"205
6Max BrownQBSR6'2"230
7Wyatt Walker BrownQBFR6'3"200
8Jyron HughleyQBFR6'2"199
15Scotty Fox Jr.QBSO6'2"215
18John Johnson IIIQBFR5'10"178
19Max AndersonQBFR6'0"214
1Amari LatimerRBFR5'10"230
4Cam CookRBSR5'9"203
20Martavious BoswellRBJR5'9"182
22Chris TalleyRBFR5'11"194
26Andre DevineRBSO5'7"160
28Lawrence AutryRBFR5'10"221
34Darius MorantRBSO6'0"226
33Kayden LukeFBJR5'11"250
2DJ EppsWRSR5'11"188
5Jaden BrayWRSR6'2"208
11TaRon FrancisWRFR6'1"216
13Kedrick TriplettWRSO5'11"205
14Keon HutchinsWRJR6'0"177
17Prince StrachanWRJR6'5"215
23Malachi ThompsonWRFR6'4"198
24Landon DrummWRFR6'3"187
25Armoni WeaverWRFR5'9"167
25Armoni Weaver-BomarWRFR5'9"170
32Brad MossorWRFR5'11"187
80John NeiderWRJR6'2"205
85Robert OliverWRFR6'2"185
86Cyrus TraughWRJR5'11"193
87Greg WilfredWRFR5'9"175
89Charlie HanafinWRFR6'0"186
0Josh SappTESR6'2"238
10Cam BallTESR6'7"247
46Xavier AndersonTEFR6'6"215
49Carter ZulianiTEFR6'6"261
81Kade BushTEFR6'4"226
84Ryan WardTEJR6'4"248
88Sam HamiltonTEFR6'4"246
51Raymond KovaleskyOLSO6'3"278
52Nick KraheOLJR6'6"312
54Amare GraysonOLJR6'1"306
55Aidan WoodsOLFR6'5"310
56Lamarcus DillardOLFR6'1"297
59Josh AisosaOLSO6'3"320
60Jonas MuyaOLFR6'7"293
61Trevor BigelowOLFR6'3"273
64Rhett MorrisOLFR6'2"308
65Malik AgboOLSR6'4"301
67Landen LivingstonOLSR6'4"296
68Camden GoforthOLFR6'4"306
69Devin VassOLJR6'6"306
72Cam GriffinOLSR6'2"305
73Andreas HunterOLSO6'4"300
74Kevin BrownOLFR6'6"294
76Deshawn WoodsOLSR6'5"300
78Wes KingOLSR6'3"309
79Carsten CasadyOLJR6'6"310
10Jeremiah JohnsonEDGEJR6'2"249
50Harper HollomanEDGEJR6'2"255
95Tobi HaastrupEDGEFR6'3"250
99David AfoghoEDGEJR6'3"251
18Zeke Durham-CampbellDLSR6'4"259
41Noah TishendorfDLFR6'3"254
43KJ HensonDLJR6'4"290
47Wilnerson TelemaqueDLFR6'6"265
49Carter KesslerDLFR6'2"250
51Taylor BrownDLFR6'3"290
52Corey McIntyre Jr.DLJR6'3"290
55Yendor MackDLFR6'3"288
60Gabe RyanDLSR6'2"276
72Jaylen ThomasDLJR6'2"316
91Darius WileyDLSO6'6"268
92Emerson JoyDLJR6'6"253
93Nate GabrielDLJR6'3"295
94Cam MalloryDLFR6'0"298
97Will LeBlancDLSO6'5"288
98Brandon CaesarDLFR6'4"257
13Cam TorborLBFR6'3"239
14Tyler StolskyLBSR6'2"232
15Ben CutterLBSR6'0"228
16Isaiah PattersonLBSO6'2"235
30Antoine Sharp Jr.LBFR6'0"225
33Ashton WoodsLBJR6'3"228
35Cameron DwyerLBFR6'1"216
40Jason Hall Jr.LBJR6'1"234
45Malachi HoodLBSR6'2"228
48Troy FischerLBSR5'11"222
54Destin AchiLBSO6'1"216
4Da'Mun AllenCBJR6'3"203
7Chams DiagneCBSR6'3"208
11Vincent SmithCBFR6'1"215
19Nick TaylorCBJR6'1"193
20Keyshawn RobinsonCBJR5'11"193
22Jaire RawlisonCBSO5'9"183
24Rayshawn Reynolds Jr.CBJR6'3"188
26Makhi BooneCBFR6'0"168
27ChaMarryus BomarCBFR5'10"194
32Simaj HillCBFR6'0"184
39Jayden BellCBJR5'10"160
1Geimere Latimer IIDBSR5'9"188
17Miles KhatriDBFR6'0"208
23Emory SnyderDBFR6'3"211
25Jayden BallardDBFR6'0"187
37Maliek HawkinsDBFR6'0"192
0Andrew PowdrellSSR5'10"186
3Matt SiegSFR6'0"190
6Da'Mare WilliamsSSO6'1"201
8Kamari WilsonSSR6'0"211
12Jacob BradfordSFR5'11"192
28Rickey GilesSFR5'10"194
29Kameron ReddicSJR6'0"192
31Shane CornaliSFR6'2"195
34Tim RobersonSJR5'11"182
38Silas SteffenSFR6'4"200
42Alex AdebayoSSO6'1"202
39Peter NotaroPKFR5'11"192
42Jack CassidyPKSR6'6"234
48Nate FlowerPKJR6'2"188
83Bryan HansenPSR6'3"217
38Macguire MossLSSR6'1"226
53Kaden SellerLSSO6'2"257

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
41.5
scoring offense
Points allowed
15.5
scoring defense
Differential
+26.0
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
469.0#41
Yards / play
6.8#42
Passing yards / game
170.5#108
Rushing yards / game
298.5#10
First downs / game
20.5#74
3rd down %
56.7%#18
4th down %
100.0%#1
Time of possession
29:06#88
Defense
Yards allowed / game
371.5#92
Yards / play allowed
5.5#92
Pass yards allowed / game
271.5#118
Rush yards allowed / game
100.0#56
3rd down % allowed
34.6%#66
Sacks
7#6
Tackles for loss
18#5
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+2#22
Takeaways
4#14
Giveaways
2#68
Penalties / game
4.5#34
Penalty yards / game
39.5#38

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

run-leaning

West Virginia runs it: Rich Rodriguez's offenses have been run-leaning across 6 seasons. The strengths are defensive, led by 17th at holding the line of scrimmage. The way in is 128th at running it, and they are 127th at staying on schedule through the air.

On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+2.1%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −28.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

West Virginia has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.

Projected strengths

  • Defensethe push the line gets
    #17
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Offenserunning it
    #128
    projected
  • Offensestaying on schedule through the air
    #127
    projected
  • Offensefirst and second down
    #125
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
4.5 – 7.5
projected final record (now 2–0)
Exp. wins left
2.5
of 10 games
Bowl odds
20%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
53%
vs Oklahoma State
Toughest
1%
vs Texas Tech

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

23456789101112
final winstallest bar = 30% chance
Likeliest finish 4-8 (30%)Bowl eligible 20% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBMichael Hawkins Jr.
+36.2 EPA
WRJaden Bray, DJ Epps +3
+22.5 EPA
RBCam Cook, Amari Latimer
+2.2 EPA
TERyan Ward
+2.0 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

Estimated NIL Market Value
ESTIMATED
QBMichael Hawkins Jr.
~$1.0M
EPA +36.20.787/play46 snaps

Estimated from position-group market rates and on-field EPA contribution. Actual NIL valuations depend on social media following, brand fit, and market negotiations — these figures are directional only.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.3268th#45
Def0.1050th#70
Explosiveness
Off1.2243rd#79
Def1.3432nd#94
Field position
Off68.937th#87
Def72.849th#71
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off3.9345th#77
Def2.1878th#31
Turnovers
Won 4Lost 2
Margin +2

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
1.0198th#4
Off · rush
0.1448th#72

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.1448th#72
Def-0.1475th#35
Passing
Off1.0198th#4
Def0.3034th#92

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
2.94#82
2nd-level / open-field
0.89 / 2.06
Power / stuff (off)
80.0% / 14.6%
Havoc — total (def)
21.7%#30
Havoc — front 7 / DB
15.9% / 5.8%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.30
Def-0.07
Pass downs
Off0.38
Def0.39

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.22#380.11#880.77#44
Defense-0.08#600.20#900.38#73

Elo Trajectory

Coastal CarolinaFinal
Elo rating 1360 → 1365+5 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 43 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.1332nd
  • Defense EPA/play allowed0.2226th
  • Offense success rate42%37th
  • Defense success rate allowed43%28th

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs45%35th
  • Offense success — passing downs33%52nd
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs41%53rd
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs46%12th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.013th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.514th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9228th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.412th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards2.727th
  • Defense line yards allowed1.978th
  • Offense highlight yards1.668th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed1.234th
  • Offense power success0.7550th
  • Defense power success allowed0.6761st
  • Offense stuff rate0.1555th
  • Defense stuff rate0.3290th

Third down

  • Third down conversion53%69th
  • Third down distance faced5.387th
  • Third down conversion allowed20%85th
  • Third down distance forced8.576th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.1148th
  • Net success rate — second half-0.215th

Drives

  • Points per drive2.663rd
  • Points per drive allowed1.854th
  • Average starting field position3280th
  • Opponent starting field position2573rd
  • Available yards gained62%77th
  • Available yards allowed44%65th
  • Scoring opportunities per drive92%79th
  • Scoring opportunities allowed77%63rd
  • Points per scoring opportunity2.854th
  • Points allowed per opportunity2.459th
  • Three-and-out rate42%20th
  • Three-and-outs forced23%48th

Roster

  • Returning usage26%26th
  • Returning EPA21.19th
  • Team talent composite70865th
  • Recruiting class rank25.082nd
  • Recruiting class points23082nd

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

EPA/play
+0.319#45 · above avg
Pass EPA/play
+1.009#4
Rush EPA/play
+0.142#72
Explosiveness
1.223#79
Pts/opportunity
3.93#77
Success rate
48.1%

Pass efficiency edge: 0.868 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

EPA/play allowed
+0.100#70 · average
Havoc rate (total)
21.7%#30
Front-7 havoc
15.9%
DB havoc
5.8%
Big play rate allowed
1.340#94
Success rate allowed
42.5%

Disruption comes primarily from the front seven.

📊

Season Signature

41.5 PPG offense, 15.5 allowed — +26.0 margin/game
Points per game
41.5
Points allowed/game
15.5
Scoring margin/game
+26.0
Turnover margin
+2won 4 · lost 2
Production returning
14%
Talent rank (247)
#49

2-0 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE68thEXPLOSIVENESS43thFINISHING45thFIELD POS37thDEFENSE50thHAVOC79th50th100th
Offense
68th
Explosiveness
43th
Finishing
45th
Field Pos
37th
Defense
50th
Havoc
79th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-8.7
#105
Offense
-5.0
#108
Defense
+3.8
#103
Full CORE ratings →

What a possession is worth · 12 drives

MeasureOffenseDefense
Points per drive2.581.85
Starting field positionown 32.2own 24.8
Available yards61.9%44.1%
Scoring opportunities91.7%76.9%
Points per opportunity2.822.40
Three-and-out rate41.7%23.1%
Every team’s drive efficiency →

Play-calling identity

Against what the league calls from the same down, distance, field position, score and clock — so this is the staff, not the game script.

Pass rate
20.8%
Expected, given the spots
39.9%
Over expected
-19.1
Fourth down vs peers
-1
Fourth down vs the model
-67
All play-calling tendencies →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. West Virginia is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to West Virginia in 2026

by EPA/play distance
KansasSP+ +7.5
Off EPA/play +0.310Def EPA/play +0.066Elo 1473
Match
98%
UConnSP+ -6.3
Off EPA/play +0.303Def EPA/play +0.136Elo 1484
Match
98%
UTSASP+ +2.9
Off EPA/play +0.302Def EPA/play +0.053Elo 1522
Match
97%
Arizona StateSP+ +8.7
Off EPA/play +0.348Def EPA/play +0.057Elo 1572
Match
97%
San Diego StateSP+ +3.1
Off EPA/play +0.391Def EPA/play +0.113Elo 1518
Match
97%
App StateSP+ -7.2
Off EPA/play +0.297Def EPA/play +0.163Elo 1310
Match
96%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: +14.8, #22 of 1282016: +11.6, #24 of 1282017: +10.2, #32 of 1302018: +11.8, #26 of 1302019: -4.6, #80 of 1302020: +5.9, #41 of 1242021: +5.2, #54 of 1302022: -1.7, #71 of 1312023: +5.4, #43 of 1332024: -4.4, #83 of 1342025: -10.6, #98 of 1362026: -8.7, #105 of 138
20152026
Now -8.7 · #105 of 138Best +14.8 in 2015Worst -10.6 in 2025

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20262-00-0
100%
1.9+0.1
20254-82-7
33%
4.8-0.8
20246-75-4
46%
4.9+1.1
20239-46-3
69%
8.8+0.2
20225-73-6
42%
5.3-0.3
20216-74-5
46%
6.0+0.0
20206-44-4
60%
5.2+0.8
20195-73-6
42%
3.8+1.2
20188-46-3
67%
7.4+0.6
20177-65-4
54%
5.9+1.1

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

0.5%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

1-0 so far, projected to finish 4.9-7.1.

If they finish with…

31%
2 losses
1.8%
3 losses
0.0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count.

down 0.8 points since preseason — won 31-24 over Coastal Carolina against an expected margin of +16, so −8.8 against the number.

  • At 2 losses they are 31% where the average Big 12 team is 46%.
  • The Big 12 takes 1.61 bids in an average season, and four or more in 1.0%.

West Virginia’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk10at Texas Tech4.3
  • wk13at Utah1.7
  • wk8at TCU1.6
  • wk3at Virginia1.5
  • wk6vs Arizona1.4
  • wk12vs Houston1.2

Who to root for

Games West Virginia is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk9Minnesota over Indiana0.3
  • wk8Cincinnati over Texas Tech0.3
  • wk9Northwestern over Oregon0.2
  • wk5Colorado over Texas Tech0.2
  • wk5Kentucky over South Carolina0.2
  • wk3Syracuse over Pittsburgh0.2
The full playoff picture →

Big 12

0-0 in league play, projected 2.7-6.316 of 16 by title odds
0.2%
Wins the Big 12
0.7%
Reaches the title game

The Big 12 sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 45% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk10West Virginia at Texas Tech2.6

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Big 12 race →

If not the playoff, then

35%
Bowl eligible
29%
Placed in a bowl
0.5%
In the playoff
70%
Season over in November

West Virginia is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 4.8% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • First Responder Bowl4.9%
  • Independence Bowl4.4%
  • Rate Bowl3.5%
  • Xbox Bowl3.3%
  • Liberty Bowl2.7%
  • Pop-Tarts Bowl2.2%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 7 have sent West Virginia a player since 2010 — 16 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of West Virginia's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
St. Frances AcademyMD40
HamiltonAZ30
FairfieldOH20
George WashingtonWV20
Imhotep InstitutePA20
WestsideSC20
NavarreFL11
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.