#30Chuba Hubbard

RB·Oklahoma State·2020 20191.6 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Chuba Hubbard is a 2-year Featured Back for Oklahoma State. Chuba's 2020 season ranks in the 23th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 139 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Chuba Hubbard's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Rushing

623 Rush yards5 Rush TD132 Carries4.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

8 Receptions52 Rec yards1 Rec TD6.5 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs RB peers

Efficiency23
Volume78
Explosiveness34
Consistency64
Receiving30

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)23th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency64th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.16 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.67 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Kansas (SP+ -16).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
3	vsTulsa	W16-7	5.6	27	93	3.4	1	2	-7	0	-0.10
4	vsWest Virginia	W27-13	8.5	22	101	4.6	1	—	—	—	0.26
5	@Kansas	W47-7	-16.3	20	145	7.3	2	—	—	—	0.67
8	vsIowa State	W24-21	13.3	25	140	5.6	1	1	21	0	0.20
9	vsTexas	L34-41	9.7	24	69	2.9	0	4	34	1	-0.04
10	@Kansas State	W20-18	2.0	6	31	5.2	0	1	4	0	0.13
12	@Oklahoma	L13-41	17.8	8	44	5.5	0	—	—	—	0.25

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

27.3%

Passing plays

4.5%

Rushing plays

44.3%

Standard downs

30.4%

Passing downs

20.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.09
Passing downs: 0.33
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.36 / 0.14

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 — 2020 · 20 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2019	Oklahoma State	8.2	0.450	—	154.4
2020	Oklahoma State	1.6	0.290	-0.16	40.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.