#15A.J. Doyle

TE·Massachusetts·20130.0 pts line value1st Round

A.J. Doyle is a Slot Specialist TE for Massachusetts. A.J.'s 2013 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 255 plays — a developing rate for the TE.

What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.42
Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.04
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
Total EPA (value)0.46
Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So A.J. Doyle's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

128/235 Comp/Att1274 Pass yards6 Pass TD11 INT54.5% Comp %

Rushing

151 Rush yards0 Rush TD65 Carries2.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs TE peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Explosiveness0
Consistency0
Pass-Down53

Player type

Slot Specialist TE

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs TE peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used TEs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.

Historical Comparables · TE · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Kaden Feagin	Illinois	2025	115	0.040	0.0	4.6
Cole Gautsche	New Mexico	2013	104	0.170	1.0	17.7
Johnny Langan	Rutgers	2019	117	0.240	0.0	28.1
Kaden Feagin	Illinois	2023	98	0.180	0.0	17.6
Connor Blumrick	Texas A&M	2021	106	0.230	0.0	24.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · EPA per play, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	EPA/play	Pass	Rush
1	@Wisconsin	L0-45	22.4	0.17	0.22	-0.23
2	vsMaine	L14-24	—	-0.21	-0.21	-0.10
3	@Kansas State	L7-37	21.7	0.21	0.27	-0.02
4	vsVanderbilt	L7-24	7.5	0.12	0.19	-0.15
6	@Bowling Green	L7-28	9.8	-0.28	-0.34	-0.08
7	vsMiami (OH)	W17-10	-29.0	0.04	0.05	0.02
8	@Buffalo	L3-32	-9.0	0.26	0.16	0.70
9	vsWestern Michigan	L30-31	-25.5	0.27	0.35	-0.01
12	vsAkron	L13-14	-15.3	0.01	0.01	0.04
13	@Central Michigan	L0-37	-18.8	-0.63	-0.79	0.62
14	@Ohio	L23-51	-11.4	-0.08	-0.11	-0.03

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

39.7%

Passing plays

73.4%

Rushing plays

14.0%

Standard downs

32.3%

Passing downs

54.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.02
Passing downs: 0.04
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.02 / 0.08

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.