Miami (OH) vs. Pittsburgh: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
M-OHTeam statsPITT
- Q4 9:48PITTDamon Ferguson Jr. 15 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Sam Hunsaker Kick)14–59
- Q3 5:24PITTBryce Yates 27 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Antonio Chadha Kick)14–52
- Q3 7:43PITTCensere Lee 35 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Antonio Chadha Kick)14–45
- Q3 13:26PITTCataurus Hicks 53 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Antonio Chadha Kick)14–38
- Q2 0:00PITTAntonio Chadha 58 Yd Field Goal 14–31
- Q2 4:34M-OHDamarion Witten 75 Yd pass from David McComb (Kellan McLaughlin Kick)14–28
- Q2 4:44PITTJa'Kyrian Turner 45 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Antonio Chadha Kick)7–28
- Q2 10:29M-OHD'Shawntae Jones 1 Yd Run (Kellan McLaughlin Kick)7–21
- Q1 0:09PITTElijah Lagg 5 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Antonio Chadha Kick)0–21
- Q1 4:55PITTJustin Cook 50 Yd Run (Antonio Chadha Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:06PITTMalik Knight 17 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Antonio Chadha Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- M-OH played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and PITT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.6 vs 3rd & 6.4
- M-OH lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 34% success rate
A comfortable Pittsburgh win. The film says it was less about fireworks than you'd think.
This one was over early. Pittsburgh runs away from Miami (OH), 59-14 at Acrisure Stadium. Pittsburgh led from start to finish and never let Miami (OH) within striking distance. Mason Heintschel threw for 453 yards on 41 attempts with seven touchdowns and ran five times for 23 yards.
- PassDavid McComb 16/33, 241 YDS, 1 TD
- RushLazaro Rogers 6 CAR, 21 YDS
- RecDamarion Witten 2 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMason Heintschel 31/41, 453 YDS, 7 TD
- RushJustin Cook 1 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCataurus Hicks 5 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPITT up 38 entering the 4th quarter. Across 183 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Miami (OH) vs. Pittsburgh?
Miami (OH) 14, Pittsburgh 59.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (PITT) was correct.
| M-OH | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 289 | Total yards | 646 |
| 262 | Passing yards | 480 |
| 27 | Rushing yards | 166 |
| 14 | First downs | 33 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 7-10 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 19/37 | Comp/Att | 34/44 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 10.9 |
| 1.3 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-78 | Penalties | 5-38 |
| 26:04 | Possession | 33:56 |
Costliest call
Q1 14:06 M-OH punt on 4th & 4 at PITT 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.96 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:48PITTDamon Ferguson Jr. 15 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Sam Hunsaker Kick)14–59
- Q3 5:24PITTBryce Yates 27 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Antonio Chadha Kick)14–52
- Q3 7:43PITTCensere Lee 35 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Antonio Chadha Kick)14–45
- Q3 13:26PITTCataurus Hicks 53 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Antonio Chadha Kick)14–38
- Q2 0:00PITTAntonio Chadha 58 Yd Field Goal 14–31
- Q2 4:34M-OHDamarion Witten 75 Yd pass from David McComb (Kellan McLaughlin Kick)14–28
- Q2 4:44PITTJa'Kyrian Turner 45 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Antonio Chadha Kick)7–28
- Q2 10:29M-OHD'Shawntae Jones 1 Yd Run (Kellan McLaughlin Kick)7–21
- Q1 0:09PITTElijah Lagg 5 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Antonio Chadha Kick)0–21
- Q1 4:55PITTJustin Cook 50 Yd Run (Antonio Chadha Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:06PITTMalik Knight 17 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Antonio Chadha Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PITT Elo 1576, M-OH Elo 1364 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PITT -14.6 (82% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| M-OH | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.2 (#114) | CORE overall | +15.3 (#23) |
| -6 / +6 | offense / defense | +8 / -7 |
| 1.27 | points / drive | 4.92 |
| 4.92 | allowed / drive | 1.27 |
| 45% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +16 | pass over expected | +13 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Mason Heintschel was responsible for 42 of Pittsburgh's 59 points
A comfortable Pittsburgh win. The film says it was less about fireworks than you'd think.
One team finished its drives
Pittsburgh scored on 75% of its drives to Miami (OH)'s 17%, led by Mason Heintschel (42 pts), Censere Lee (6 pts) and Justin Cook (6 pts). Pittsburgh converted 7 of 11 third downs (64%) to Miami (OH)'s 21%: Mason Heintschel (4/6), Censere Lee (3/3) and Ja'Kyrian Turner (2/3). Stacked together, it was never close.
The names on it
Mason Heintschel threw for 453 yards on 41 attempts with seven touchdowns and ran five times for 23 yards, with that score from inside the 20, four third-down conversions and a hand in eight plays of 15 yards or more. Censere Lee caught five passes for 86 yards, one of them for a touchdown, with three third-down conversions. Justin Cook ran one times for 50 yards and one score and caught one pass for 7 yards. For Miami (OH), David McComb threw for 240 yards on 33 attempts with one touchdown and lost 19 yards on three carries — two third-down conversions and a hand in six plays of 15 yards or more. Damarion Witten caught two passes for 90 yards, one of them for a touchdown. D'Shawntae Jones ran five times for 10 yards and one score, including that score from inside the 20. Rashan Murray was the disruptive one for Pittsburgh: 1 INT, 1 tackle.
What Miami (OH) has to fix
The problems had names: Caleb Heavner (1 interception).
The disruptive ones
Three names to keep, all for Pittsburgh: Rashan Murray (1 INT, 1 tackle), Nick James (1 sack, 2 TFLs, 2.5 tackles) and Isaiah Neal (1 sack, 1 TFL, 2.5 tackles).
The order of events
Pittsburgh struck first through Mason Heintschel, led 31-14 at the half and Pittsburgh got the final points on a late touchdown by Mason Heintschel.
How it graded
The closing line had Pittsburgh -16.5. Pittsburgh covered. The total was 47.5; the teams combined for 73, an over. Mason Heintschel accounted for 42 of Pittsburgh's points.
Where it leaves them
Historically similar games since 2019 — close margin, both offenses held far below norm — and how often that offense outperformed this level the following week.
Pittsburgh cleared the bar with room to spare; Miami (OH) goes back to the drawing board. David McComb was responsible for 6 of Miami (OH)'s points; there was not enough behind him.
Our coverage of this game
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →