SMU vs. East Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
SMUTeam statsECU
- Q4 7:05SMUTyler Lavine 4 Yd Run (Chris Naggar Kick)38–52
- Q4 7:28SMUTyler Lavine 5 Yd Run (Chris Naggar Kick)31–52
- Q4 13:15ECUDarius Pinnix Jr. 2 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)24–52
- Q3 0:00SMUChris Naggar 36 Yd Field Goal 24–45
- Q3 4:56SMUUlysses Bentley IV 26 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–45
- Q3 8:12SMUShane Buechele 1 Yd Run (Shane Buechele Pass to Rashee Rice for Two-Point Conversion)15–45
- Q2 0:01ECUJake Verity 29 Yd Field Goal 7–45
- Q2 4:00ECUTyler Snead 16 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Jake Verity Kick)7–42
- Q2 6:16ECUKeaton Mitchell 7 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Jake Verity Kick)7–35
- Q2 11:01ECUC.J. Johnson 14 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Jake Verity Kick)7–28
- Q1 0:00ECUBlake Proehl 35 Yd pass from Tyler Snead (Jake Verity Kick)7–21
- Q1 3:27SMUKylen Granson 6 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Chris Naggar Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:07ECUBlake Proehl 11 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Jake Verity Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:08ECUKeaton Mitchell 9 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SMU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ECU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.0 vs 3rd & 6.4
- PassShane Buechele 35/50, 314 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushUlysses Bentley IV 12 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecAustin Upshaw 8 REC, 78 YDS
- PassHolton Ahlers 20/29, 298 YDS, 4 TD
- RushKeaton Mitchell 20 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBlake Proehl 6 REC, 152 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsECU up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 0:00ECU +21%
Tyler Snead pass complete to Blake Proehl for 35 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
- Q1 7:07ECU +19%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 11 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
- Q1 9:08ECU +18%
Keaton Mitchell run for 9 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
- Q1 3:27SMU +17%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 6 yds for a TD (Chris Naggar KICK)
- Q2 11:01ECU +15%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 14 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
- Q2 6:16ECU +8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 7 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of SMU vs. East Carolina?
SMU 38, East Carolina 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SMU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| SMU | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| 384 | Total yards | 493 |
| 314 | Passing yards | 333 |
| 70 | Rushing yards | 160 |
| 26 | First downs | 28 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 35/51 | Comp/Att | 21/30 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 11.1 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-77 | Penalties | 7-72 |
| 29:43 | Possession | 30:17 |
Costliest call
Q2 11:01 SMU punt on 4th & 1 at SMU 17. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.85 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:05SMUTyler Lavine 4 Yd Run (Chris Naggar Kick)38–52
- Q4 7:28SMUTyler Lavine 5 Yd Run (Chris Naggar Kick)31–52
- Q4 13:15ECUDarius Pinnix Jr. 2 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)24–52
- Q3 0:00SMUChris Naggar 36 Yd Field Goal 24–45
- Q3 4:56SMUUlysses Bentley IV 26 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)21–45
- Q3 8:12SMUShane Buechele 1 Yd Run (Shane Buechele Pass to Rashee Rice for Two-Point Conversion)15–45
- Q2 0:01ECUJake Verity 29 Yd Field Goal 7–45
- Q2 4:00ECUTyler Snead 16 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Jake Verity Kick)7–42
- Q2 6:16ECUKeaton Mitchell 7 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Jake Verity Kick)7–35
- Q2 11:01ECUC.J. Johnson 14 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Jake Verity Kick)7–28
- Q1 0:00ECUBlake Proehl 35 Yd pass from Tyler Snead (Jake Verity Kick)7–21
- Q1 3:27SMUKylen Granson 6 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Chris Naggar Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:07ECUBlake Proehl 11 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Jake Verity Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:08ECUKeaton Mitchell 9 Yd Run (Jake Verity Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ECU Elo 1298, SMU Elo 1587 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ECU +9.2 (28% to win) — 2.8 points clear of ECU's market line of +12. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2020
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#21 of 97 in 2020 by biggest miss · #30 of 107 in 2020 by longest odds.
The 2020 upset archive →The series is level at 5–5 · 40% have been one-possession games
| SMU | ECU | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.3 (#65) | CORE overall | -6.8 (#87) |
| +4 / +3 | offense / defense | -4 / +3 |
| 2.90 | points / drive | 1.95 |
| 2.56 | allowed / drive | 2.44 |
| 17% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →