UAB vs. Southern Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UABTeam statsUSM
- Q4 0:35UABDarious Williams 41 Yd Interception Return (Nick Vogel Kick)30–12
- Q4 6:29UABNick Vogel 43 Yd Field Goal 23–12
- Q4 11:43UABHayden Pittman 25 Yd pass from A.J. Erdely (Nick Vogel Kick)20–12
- Q3 11:01UABA.J. Erdely 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–12
- Q2 8:10USMParker Shaunfield 31 Yd Field Goal 7–12
- Q1 3:20USMParker Shaunfield 25 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q1 10:51UABSpencer Brown 2 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick)7–6
- Q1 14:40USMIto Smith 84 Yd pass from Keon Howard (Parker Shaunfield PAT blocked)0–6
How the model called it
- PassA.J. Erdely 16/29, 208 YDS, 1 TD
- RushSpencer Brown 33 CAR, 209 YDS, 1 TD
- RecXavier Ubosi 1 REC, 60 YDS
- PassKeon Howard 14/25, 207 YDS, 1 TD
- RushIto Smith 12 CAR, 36 YDS
- RecIto Smith 3 REC, 93 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUAB up 1 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,678 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 11:43UAB +44%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 25 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)
- Q3 11:01UAB +22%
A.J. Erdely run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
- Q1 10:51UAB +17%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)
- Q4 14:39USM +12%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Quez Watkins
- Q4 15:00UAB +12%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Andre Wilson, broken up by Curtis Mikell
- Q4 9:51UAB +11%
Spencer Brown run for 5 yds to the SoMis 39
FAQ
What was the final score of UAB vs. Southern Miss?
UAB 30, Southern Miss 12.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UAB | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 417 | Total yards | 347 |
| 208 | Passing yards | 266 |
| 209 | Rushing yards | 81 |
| 21 | First downs | 14 |
| 10-19 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 16/29 | Comp/Att | 19/38 |
| 7.2 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 4.3 | Yards per rush | 3.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 5-50 | Penalties | 5-41 |
| 33:44 | Possession | 26:16 |
Costliest call
Q2 15:00 USM punt on 4th & 4 at UAB 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:35UABDarious Williams 41 Yd Interception Return (Nick Vogel Kick)30–12
- Q4 6:29UABNick Vogel 43 Yd Field Goal 23–12
- Q4 11:43UABHayden Pittman 25 Yd pass from A.J. Erdely (Nick Vogel Kick)20–12
- Q3 11:01UABA.J. Erdely 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–12
- Q2 8:10USMParker Shaunfield 31 Yd Field Goal 7–12
- Q1 3:20USMParker Shaunfield 25 Yd Field Goal 7–9
- Q1 10:51UABSpencer Brown 2 Yd Run (Nick Vogel Kick)7–6
- Q1 14:40USMIto Smith 84 Yd pass from Keon Howard (Parker Shaunfield PAT blocked)0–6
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USM Elo 1420, UAB Elo 1395 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USM -3.4 (60% to win) — 8.1 points clear of UAB's market line of -11.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#31 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #34 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Southern Miss leads 11–8 · 53% have been one-possession games
| UAB | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.2 (#82) | CORE overall | -5.1 (#81) |
| -3 / +2 | offense / defense | -6 / -1 |
| 2.20 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 2.10 | allowed / drive | 1.97 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 31% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →