Boston College vs. Louisville: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BCTeam statsLOU
- Q4 0:00BCColton Lichtenberg 27 Yd Field Goal 45–42
- Q4 5:03LOULamar Jackson 41 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)42–42
- Q4 8:59LOULamar Jackson 9 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)42–35
- Q4 11:59BCAJ Dillon 75 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)42–28
- Q4 12:13LOUDez Fitzpatrick 40 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick)35–28
- Q4 14:55BCAJ Dillon 11 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)35–21
- Q3 2:28BCJon Hilliman 6 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)28–21
- Q3 5:03BCAJ Dillon 3 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)21–21
- Q2 0:51BCAJ Dillon 1 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)14–21
- Q2 5:07LOUReggie Bonnafon 64 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)7–21
- Q1 0:53BCThadd Smith 42 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:36LOULamar Jackson 20 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:38LOUKemari Averett 22 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- LOU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BC did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.0 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassAnthony Brown Jr. 5/17, 100 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushAJ Dillon 39 CAR, 272 YDS, 4 TD
- RecTommy Sweeney 4 REC, 57 YDS
- PassLamar Jackson 19/39, 332 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushLamar Jackson 22 CAR, 180 YDS, 3 TD
- RecDez Fitzpatrick 7 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBC up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:03BC +47%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST down
- Q4 5:03LOU +47%
Lamar Jackson run for 41 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
- Q4 11:59BC +36%
AJ Dillon run for 75 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
- Q3 2:28BC +33%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
- Q4 2:50LOU +26%
Lamar Jackson run for 10 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST down
- Q4 14:55BC +24%
AJ Dillon run for 11 yds for a TD, (Colton Lichtenberg KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Boston College vs. Louisville?
Boston College 45, Louisville 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BC | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 555 | Total yards | 625 |
| 191 | Passing yards | 332 |
| 364 | Rushing yards | 293 |
| 27 | First downs | 25 |
| 9-18 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 12/28 | Comp/Att | 19/39 |
| 6.8 | Yards per pass | 8.5 |
| 6.2 | Yards per rush | 8.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 1-10 | Penalties | 4-30 |
| 30:30 | Possession | 29:30 |
Costliest call
Q4 5:03 BC punt on 4th & 4 at LOU 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.43 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00BCColton Lichtenberg 27 Yd Field Goal 45–42
- Q4 5:03LOULamar Jackson 41 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)42–42
- Q4 8:59LOULamar Jackson 9 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)42–35
- Q4 11:59BCAJ Dillon 75 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)42–28
- Q4 12:13LOUDez Fitzpatrick 40 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick)35–28
- Q4 14:55BCAJ Dillon 11 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)35–21
- Q3 2:28BCJon Hilliman 6 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)28–21
- Q3 5:03BCAJ Dillon 3 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)21–21
- Q2 0:51BCAJ Dillon 1 Yd Run (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)14–21
- Q2 5:07LOUReggie Bonnafon 64 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)7–21
- Q1 0:53BCThadd Smith 42 Yd pass from Anthony Brown (Colton Lichtenberg Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:36LOULamar Jackson 20 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)0–14
- Q1 11:38LOUKemari Averett 22 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LOU Elo 1710, BC Elo 1386 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LOU -15.4 (85% to win) — 5.1 points clear of BC's market line of -20.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#51 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #9 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Louisville leads 11–7 · Louisville has won 3 straight · 39% have been one-possession games
| BC | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.0 (#29) | CORE overall | +18.8 (#14) |
| -0 / -11 | offense / defense | +21 / +2 |
| 1.74 | points / drive | 2.94 |
| 1.59 | allowed / drive | 2.04 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -10 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →