UCF vs. Maryland: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UCFTeam statsMD
- Q4 5:11UCFMike Hughes 57 Yd Interception Return (Matthew Wright Kick)38–10
- Q4 7:29UCFAdrian Killins Jr. 15 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)31–10
- Q4 12:34UCFMatthew Wright 20 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q3 2:04MDD.J. Moore 20 Yd pass from Max Bortenschlager (Henry Darmstadter Kick)21–10
- Q3 10:17UCFJordan Akins 6 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Matthew Wright Kick)21–3
- Q2 3:49UCFTaj McGowan 3 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)14–3
- Q2 13:42UCFTaj McGowan 1 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)7–3
- Q1 3:58MDHenry Darmstadter 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MD played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UCF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 6.1
- PassMcKenzie Milton 18/30, 178 YDS, 1 TD
- RushMcKenzie Milton 6 CAR, 94 YDS
- RecJordan Akins 3 REC, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMax Bortenschlager 15/26, 132 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushLorenzo Harrison III 10 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecDJ Moore 8 REC, 83 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUCF up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 13:42UCF +19%
Taj McGowan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
- Q2 3:49UCF +17%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
- Q1 3:58MD +9%
Henry Darmstadter 34 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 10:17UCF +9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 6 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
- Q3 2:04MD +7%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D.J. Moore for 20 yds for a TD, (Henry Darmstadter KICK)
- Q3 1:59UCF +6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 22 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST down
FAQ
What was the final score of UCF vs. Maryland?
UCF 38, Maryland 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UCF) was correct.
| UCF | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| 428 | Total yards | 197 |
| 178 | Passing yards | 155 |
| 250 | Rushing yards | 42 |
| 18 | First downs | 18 |
| 5-14 | 3rd down | 2-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 18/30 | Comp/Att | 17/28 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 5.5 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 1.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 11-106 | Penalties | 7-53 |
| 30:43 | Possession | 29:17 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:34 UCF field goal on 4th & 2 at MD 2. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.39 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:11UCFMike Hughes 57 Yd Interception Return (Matthew Wright Kick)38–10
- Q4 7:29UCFAdrian Killins Jr. 15 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)31–10
- Q4 12:34UCFMatthew Wright 20 Yd Field Goal 24–10
- Q3 2:04MDD.J. Moore 20 Yd pass from Max Bortenschlager (Henry Darmstadter Kick)21–10
- Q3 10:17UCFJordan Akins 6 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Matthew Wright Kick)21–3
- Q2 3:49UCFTaj McGowan 3 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)14–3
- Q2 13:42UCFTaj McGowan 1 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)7–3
- Q1 3:58MDHenry Darmstadter 34 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MD Elo 1406, UCF Elo 1552 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MD +3.4 (42% to win) — 7.9 points clear of UCF's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#20 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #81 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →| UCF | MD | |
|---|---|---|
| +23.9 (#10) | CORE overall | -11.3 (#100) |
| +15 / -9 | offense / defense | -3 / +8 |
| 3.35 | points / drive | 1.41 |
| 1.62 | allowed / drive | 2.99 |
| 20% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +5 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →