Army vs. Air Force: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARMYTeam statsAF
- Q4 1:58ARMYKell Walker 4 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)21–0
- Q2 6:18ARMYKell Walker 27 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:21ARMYAhmad Bradshaw 21 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- AF played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ARMY did not face the same ones. 3rd & 6.1 vs 3rd & 3.2
- RushAhmad Bradshaw 23 CAR, 265 YDS, 1 TD
- PassArion Worthman 6/11, 95 YDS
- RushTimothy McVey 10 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecRonald Cleveland 2 REC, 33 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARMY up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 6:18ARMY +22%
Kell Walker run for 27 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)
- Q1 12:21ARMY +18%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 21 yds for a TD, (Blake Wilson KICK)
- Q4 4:41ARMY +8%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 8 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST down
- Q2 0:49ARMY +7%
Kell Walker run for a loss of 1 yard to the Army 39
- Q3 11:32ARMY +6%
Ahmad Bradshaw run for 20 yds to the Army 25 for a 1ST down
- Q4 15:00ARMY +5%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Timothy McVey for 19 yds to the Army 8 AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (Marcus Bennett) to the Army 18
FAQ
What was the final score of Army vs. Air Force?
Army 21, Air Force 0.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked AF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARMY | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| 392 | Total yards | 184 |
| 0 | Passing yards | 95 |
| 392 | Rushing yards | 95 |
| 20 | First downs | 12 |
| 10-12 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 0/0 | Comp/Att | 6/13 |
| 0.0 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 6.6 | Yards per rush | 2.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 2-10 | Penalties | 3-21 |
| 35:20 | Possession | 24:40 |
Costliest call
Q3 15:00 AF punt on 4th & 5 at AF 49. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.15 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:58ARMYKell Walker 4 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)21–0
- Q2 6:18ARMYKell Walker 27 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)14–0
- Q1 12:21ARMYAhmad Bradshaw 21 Yd Run (Blake Wilson Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (AF Elo 1552, ARMY Elo 1438 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects AF -7 (69% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#34 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #68 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Air Force leads 38–21–1 · Army has won 3 straight · 27% have been one-possession games
| ARMY | AF | |
|---|---|---|
| -1.8 (#67) | CORE overall | -11.8 (#103) |
| +9 / +11 | offense / defense | +2 / +14 |
| 3.19 | points / drive | 2.44 |
| 2.56 | allowed / drive | 3.05 |
| 15% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -37 | pass over expected | -30 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →