Maryland vs. Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MDTeam statsTEX
- Q4 1:09TEXCollin Johnson 32 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Joshua Rowland Kick)51–41
- Q4 2:08MDJake Funk 12 Yd Run (Adam Greene Kick)51–34
- Q4 7:36MDKasim Hill 3 Yd Run (Adam Greene Kick)44–34
- Q3 1:23TEXShane Buechele 3 Yd Run (Joshua Rowland Kick)37–34
- Q3 4:29MDTy Johnson 40 Yd Run (Adam Greene Kick)37–27
- Q3 5:20TEXReggie Hemphill-Mapps 91 Yd Punt Return (Joshua Rowland Kick)30–27
- Q3 7:20TEXArmanti Foreman 33 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–20
- Q2 2:37MDAdam Greene 26 Yd Field Goal 30–14
- Q2 5:38TEXHolton Hill 65 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Joshua Rowland Kick)27–14
- Q2 7:47MDTaivon Jacobs 46 Yd pass from Tyrrell Pigrome (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–7
- Q2 11:43MDAntoine Brooks 71 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Adam Greene Kick)21–7
- Q1 3:09MDD.J. Moore 20 Yd pass from Tyrrell Pigrome (Adam Greene Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:28MDTyrrell Pigrome 25 Yd Run (Adam Greene Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:40TEXHolton Hill 31 Yd Interception Return (Joshua Rowland Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MD played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TEX did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.7 vs 3rd & 7.3
- PassTyrrell Pigrome 9/12, 175 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushTy Johnson 12 CAR, 132 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDJ Moore 7 REC, 133 YDS, 1 TD
- PassShane Buechele 34/52, 375 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushChris Warren 6 CAR, 31 YDS
- RecCollin Johnson 7 REC, 125 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMD up 3 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,457 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:36MD +48%
Kasim Hill run for 3 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)
- Q3 1:23TEX +29%
Shane Buechele run for 3 yds for a TD, (Joshua Rowland KICK)
- Q3 4:29MD +27%
Ty Johnson run for 40 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)
- Q3 5:20TEX +24%
Reggie Hemphill-Mapps 91 Yd Punt Return (Joshua Rowland Kick)
- Q2 11:43MD +21%
Antoine Brooks 71 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Adam Greene Kick)
- Q1 3:09MD +20%
Tyrrell Pigrome pass complete to D.J. Moore for 20 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Maryland vs. Texas?
Maryland 51, Texas 41.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TEX, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| MD | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| 482 | Total yards | 473 |
| 219 | Passing yards | 375 |
| 263 | Rushing yards | 98 |
| 18 | First downs | 26 |
| 3-11 | 3rd down | 9-18 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-4 |
| 12/15 | Comp/Att | 34/53 |
| 14.6 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 6.1 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 10-53 | Penalties | 11-117 |
| 29:44 | Possession | 30:16 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:36 MD punt on 4th & 1 at MD 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.15 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:09TEXCollin Johnson 32 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Joshua Rowland Kick)51–41
- Q4 2:08MDJake Funk 12 Yd Run (Adam Greene Kick)51–34
- Q4 7:36MDKasim Hill 3 Yd Run (Adam Greene Kick)44–34
- Q3 1:23TEXShane Buechele 3 Yd Run (Joshua Rowland Kick)37–34
- Q3 4:29MDTy Johnson 40 Yd Run (Adam Greene Kick)37–27
- Q3 5:20TEXReggie Hemphill-Mapps 91 Yd Punt Return (Joshua Rowland Kick)30–27
- Q3 7:20TEXArmanti Foreman 33 Yd pass from Shane Buechele (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–20
- Q2 2:37MDAdam Greene 26 Yd Field Goal 30–14
- Q2 5:38TEXHolton Hill 65 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Joshua Rowland Kick)27–14
- Q2 7:47MDTaivon Jacobs 46 Yd pass from Tyrrell Pigrome (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)27–7
- Q2 11:43MDAntoine Brooks 71 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Adam Greene Kick)21–7
- Q1 3:09MDD.J. Moore 20 Yd pass from Tyrrell Pigrome (Adam Greene Kick)14–7
- Q1 8:28MDTyrrell Pigrome 25 Yd Run (Adam Greene Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:40TEXHolton Hill 31 Yd Interception Return (Joshua Rowland Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TEX Elo 1540, MD Elo 1369 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TEX -9.2 (74% to win) — 9.3 points clear of MD's market line of -18.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#32 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #12 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds · #33 of 58 in 2017 by biggest poll gap.
The 2017 upset archive →| MD | TEX | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.3 (#100) | CORE overall | +9.1 (#34) |
| -3 / +8 | offense / defense | -9 / -18 |
| 1.41 | points / drive | 1.86 |
| 2.99 | allowed / drive | 1.26 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 36% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →