UTSA vs. Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTSATeam statsHOU
- Q4 1:04HOURyan Jackson 2 Yd Run (Kyle Bullard Kick)27–7
- Q4 4:04UTSASean Ianno 30 Yd Field Goal 27–0
- Q3 1:15UTSASean Ianno 26 Yd Field Goal 24–0
- Q3 8:07UTSAJarveon Williams 11 Yd Run (Sean Ianno Kick)21–0
- Q2 0:42UTSADavid Glasco II 2 Yd Run (Sean Ianno Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:50UTSADavid Glasco II 3 Yd Run (Sean Ianno Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- HOU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UTSA did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.5 vs 3rd & 7.0
- PassTucker Carter 15/24, 121 YDS
- RushDavid Glasco II 25 CAR, 81 YDS, 2 TD
- RecMarcellus Mack 3 REC, 37 YDS
- PassJohn O'Korn 21/43, 204 YDS, 4 INT
- RushKenneth Farrow 7 CAR, 21 YDS
- RecDeontay Greenberry 6 REC, 96 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTSA up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:42UTSA +21%
David Glasco II run for 2 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)
- Q1 6:50UTSA +19%
David Glasco II run for 3 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)
- Q3 8:07UTSA +12%
Jarveon Williams run for 11 yds for a TD, (Sean Ianno KICK)
- Q3 11:58UTSA +7%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the Houst 25
- Q2 0:58UTSA +6%
Tucker Carter pass complete to Seth Grubb for 34 yds to the Houst 2 for a 1ST down
- Q2 2:52UTSA +5%
Tucker Carter pass incomplete to Seth Grubb
FAQ
What was the final score of UTSA vs. Houston?
UTSA 27, Houston 7.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked HOU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UTSA | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 263 | Total yards | 208 |
| 121 | Passing yards | 234 |
| 142 | Rushing yards | -26 |
| 17 | First downs | 18 |
| 5-17 | 3rd down | 4-16 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-4 |
| 15/24 | Comp/Att | 25/50 |
| 5.0 | Yards per pass | 4.7 |
| 2.8 | Yards per rush | -1.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 14-115 | Penalties | 9-47 |
| 40:22 | Possession | 22:14 |
Costliest call
Q1 3:50 HOU go for it on 4th & 10 at UTSA 24. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.82 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:04HOURyan Jackson 2 Yd Run (Kyle Bullard Kick)27–7
- Q4 4:04UTSASean Ianno 30 Yd Field Goal 27–0
- Q3 1:15UTSASean Ianno 26 Yd Field Goal 24–0
- Q3 8:07UTSAJarveon Williams 11 Yd Run (Sean Ianno Kick)21–0
- Q2 0:42UTSADavid Glasco II 2 Yd Run (Sean Ianno Kick)14–0
- Q1 6:50UTSADavid Glasco II 3 Yd Run (Sean Ianno Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (HOU Elo 1612, UTSA Elo 1451 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects HOU -8.8 (73% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#16 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #26 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →| UTSA | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.26 | points / drive | 2.18 |
| 1.84 | allowed / drive | 1.74 |
| 39% | three-and-outs | 29% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →