Neyland StadiumConference game
Sat, Nov 29, 8:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 7 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 45 |
| TENN | 7 | 14 | 0 | 3 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TENN Elo 1856, VAN Elo 1827) plus home-field advantage. That projects TENN -3.6 (60% to win), essentially in line with the market.
VAN up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Vanderbilt 45, Tennessee 24.
No — the model picked TENN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had TENN pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(10:41) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete deep middle to #17 C.Brazzell II caught at VANDY03, for 52 yards to the VANDY00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:34, 1ST DOWN #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady) #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady). #68 B.Warren injured on the play
(08:18) No Huddle-Shotgun #6 J.Aguilar pass complete short middle to #0 E.Davis caught at VANDY46, for 20 yards to the VANDY35 (#2 R.Fontenette), 1ST DOWN
(07:03) Shotgun #2 D.Pavia rush middle for 31 yards gain to the TENN38 (#6 J.McMurray; #15 E.Farooq), 1ST DOWN
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