Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VANTeam statsTENN
- Q4 5:10VANSedrick Alexander 39 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)45–24
- Q4 8:55VANDiego Pavia 24 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)38–24
- Q4 12:31TENNMax Gilbert 25 Yd Field Goal 31–24
- Q3 2:12VANBrock Taylor 35 Yd Field Goal 31–21
- Q3 8:25VANSedrick Alexander 5 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)28–21
- Q2 0:12VANTre Richardson 6 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)21–21
- Q2 7:51TENNDeSean Bishop 35 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)14–21
- Q2 10:34TENNChris Brazzell II 52 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)14–14
- Q2 11:39VANMakhilyn Young 3 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)14–7
- Q1 0:59VANSedrick Alexander 28 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)7–7
- Q1 3:49TENNDeSean Bishop 2 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDiego Pavia 18/28, 268 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushDiego Pavia 20 CAR, 165 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJunior Sherrill 3 REC, 76 YDS
- PassJoey Aguilar 29/44, 299 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDeSean Bishop 20 CAR, 97 YDS, 2 TD
- RecChris Brazzell II 6 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVAN up 10 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,140 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:40TENN +13%
#98 J.Ross punt 42 yards to the VANDY28 fair catch by #4 M.Hight at VANDY28
FAQ
What was the final score of Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee?
Vanderbilt 45, Tennessee 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TENN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| VAN | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 579 | Total yards | 382 |
| 265 | Passing yards | 299 |
| 314 | Rushing yards | 83 |
| 27 | First downs | 21 |
| 7-10 | 3rd down | 12-19 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 18/28 | Comp/Att | 29/44 |
| 9.5 | Yards per pass | 6.8 |
| 8.5 | Yards per rush | 2.7 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-51 | Penalties | 5-60 |
| 34:59 | Possession | 25:01 |
Costliest call
Q4 6:45 TENN go for it on 4th & 14 at TENN 42. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:10VANSedrick Alexander 39 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)45–24
- Q4 8:55VANDiego Pavia 24 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)38–24
- Q4 12:31TENNMax Gilbert 25 Yd Field Goal 31–24
- Q3 2:12VANBrock Taylor 35 Yd Field Goal 31–21
- Q3 8:25VANSedrick Alexander 5 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)28–21
- Q2 0:12VANTre Richardson 6 Yd pass from Diego Pavia (Brock Taylor Kick)21–21
- Q2 7:51TENNDeSean Bishop 35 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)14–21
- Q2 10:34TENNChris Brazzell II 52 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)14–14
- Q2 11:39VANMakhilyn Young 3 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)14–7
- Q1 0:59VANSedrick Alexander 28 Yd Run (Brock Taylor Kick)7–7
- Q1 3:49TENNDeSean Bishop 2 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TENN Elo 1856, VAN Elo 1827 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TENN -3.6 (61% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#44 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #100 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Tennessee leads 81–31–4 · 35% have been one-possession games
| VAN | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| +25.4 (#8) | CORE overall | +15.0 (#26) |
| +28 / +2 | offense / defense | +16 / +1 |
| 3.85 | points / drive | 3.27 |
| 2.40 | allowed / drive | 2.38 |
| 16% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +5 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →