| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USF | 7 | 14 | 28 | 14 | 63 |
| UNT | 14 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 36 |
Team stats
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (UNT Elo 1616, USF Elo 1521) plus home-field advantage. That projects UNT -6.2 (68% to win) — 3.7 points of value on UNT versus the market line of -2.5.
Game flow
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = USF ahead, below = UNT ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
Season stats — 2025
Key matchups · Pro
- UNT rush offense (0.33 PPA) vs. USF rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge UNT.
- USF pass offense (0.48 PPA) vs. UNT pass defense (0.21 allowed) — edge USF.
- UNT pass offense (0.43 PPA) vs. USF pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge UNT.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USF up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of South Florida vs. North Texas?
South Florida 63, North Texas 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had UNT pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.