South Florida vs. North Texas: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USFTeam statsUNT
- Q4 5:51USFByrum Brown 9 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)63–36
- Q4 8:15UNTTre Williams III 10 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Drew Mestemaker Pass to Dalton Carnes for Two-Point Conversion)56–36
- Q4 13:49USFCole Skinner 1 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)56–28
- Q3 8:14USFJeremiah Koger 63 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)49–28
- Q3 9:35UNTMiles Coleman 54 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)42–28
- Q3 11:35USFJhalyn Shuler 34 Yd Fumble Return (Nico Gramatica Kick)42–21
- Q3 12:35USFSam Franklin 11 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)35–21
- Q3 13:51USFKeshaun Singleton 29 Yd pass from Christian Neptune (Nico Gramatica Kick)28–21
- Q2 0:02USFJonathan Echols 2 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)21–21
- Q2 6:12UNTWyatt Young 11 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)14–21
- Q2 9:37USFJeremiah Koger 14 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)14–14
- Q1 0:12UNTMakenzie McGill II 23 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:41USFByrum Brown 7 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:42UNTDrew Mestemaker 2 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UNT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and USF did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 5.5
- UNT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 39% success rate
- PassByrum Brown 22/28, 245 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushByrum Brown 21 CAR, 82 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJeremiah Koger 4 REC, 94 YDS, 2 TD
- PassDrew Mestemaker 30/46, 336 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushCaleb Hawkins 15 CAR, 59 YDS
- RecMiles Coleman 7 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSF up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 13:51USF +25%
Christian Neptune pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 29 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
- Q2 0:02USF +21%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jonathan Echols for 2 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
- Q3 12:35USF +19%
Sam Franklin run for 11 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
- Q2 9:37USF +18%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Jeremiah Koger for 14 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
- Q2 6:12UNT +18%
Wyatt Young run for 11 yds for a TD (Kali Nguma KICK)
- Q1 2:41USF +17%
Byrum Brown run for 7 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of South Florida vs. North Texas?
South Florida 63, North Texas 36.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UNT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USF | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| 580 | Total yards | 443 |
| 274 | Passing yards | 336 |
| 306 | Rushing yards | 107 |
| 32 | First downs | 26 |
| 7-11 | 3rd down | 9-18 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 23/29 | Comp/Att | 30/47 |
| 9.4 | Yards per pass | 7.1 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 6-70 | Penalties | 5-35 |
| 29:05 | Possession | 30:55 |
Costliest call
Q4 9:28 UNT go for it on 4th & 12 at USF 38. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.24 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:51USFByrum Brown 9 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)63–36
- Q4 8:15UNTTre Williams III 10 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Drew Mestemaker Pass to Dalton Carnes for Two-Point Conversion)56–36
- Q4 13:49USFCole Skinner 1 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)56–28
- Q3 8:14USFJeremiah Koger 63 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)49–28
- Q3 9:35UNTMiles Coleman 54 Yd pass from Drew Mestemaker (Kali Nguma Kick)42–28
- Q3 11:35USFJhalyn Shuler 34 Yd Fumble Return (Nico Gramatica Kick)42–21
- Q3 12:35USFSam Franklin 11 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)35–21
- Q3 13:51USFKeshaun Singleton 29 Yd pass from Christian Neptune (Nico Gramatica Kick)28–21
- Q2 0:02USFJonathan Echols 2 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)21–21
- Q2 6:12UNTWyatt Young 11 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)14–21
- Q2 9:37USFJeremiah Koger 14 Yd pass from Byrum Brown (Nico Gramatica Kick)14–14
- Q1 0:12UNTMakenzie McGill II 23 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)7–14
- Q1 2:41USFByrum Brown 7 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:42UNTDrew Mestemaker 2 Yd Run (Kali Nguma Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNT Elo 1616, USF Elo 1521 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNT -6.2 (67% to win) — 3.7 points clear of UNT's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#20 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #98 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →| USF | UNT | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.2 (#25) | CORE overall | +11.9 (#34) |
| +11 / -5 | offense / defense | +18 / +6 |
| 3.02 | points / drive | 4.00 |
| 1.88 | allowed / drive | 2.36 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 14% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +7 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →