Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics ComplexConference gameClosing line: SDSU +-6.5 · HAW covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDSU | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| HAW | 14 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 38 |
Team stats
SDSUthis game · better side highlightedHAW
267
Total yards
386132
Passing yards
256135
Rushing yards
13012
First downs
202-14 · 14%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
HAW 1359
SDSU 1601
Projected spread
HAW +7.3
incl. home edge
Model pick
SDSU
71% to win
Market spread
HAW +6.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
29%
HAW · market 32%
Our model blends Elo ratings (HAW Elo 1359, SDSU Elo 1601) plus home-field advantage. That projects HAW +7.3 (29% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
HAW (top)SDSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: HAW 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- HAW pass offense (0.31 PPA) vs. SDSU pass defense (-0.04 allowed) — edge HAW.
- SDSU pass offense (0.09 PPA) vs. HAW pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge HAW.
- SDSU rush offense (0.17 PPA) vs. HAW rush defense (0.10 allowed) — edge SDSU.
Drive-by-drive
SDSU 4/15 scoring drives← own end zone →HAW 4/13 scoring drives
SDSUPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 20Q1
HAWINT3 pl, 5 yds· own 25Q1
SDSUFG4 pl, 1 yds· opp 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
HAW up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
HAW went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of San Diego State vs. Hawai'i?
San Diego State 6, Hawai'i 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked SDSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had SDSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.