| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORE | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 23 |
| TTU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TTU Elo 2108, ORE Elo 2109) on a neutral field. That projects TTU PK (50% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = ORE ahead, below = TTU ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
ORE up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Oregon 23, Texas Tech 0.
Yes — the model's pick (ORE) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ORE pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(04:11) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 D.Moore pass incomplete short right to #2 G.Bryant Jr. thrown to TTU05 broken up by #31 D.Bailey, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
(13:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 B.Morton pass intercepted by #4 B.Finney at ORE00, Touchback
(12:17) No Huddle-Shotgun #20 J.Williams rush left for 50 yards gain to the ORE38, out of bounds at ORE38, 1ST DOWN
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