Canvas StadiumConference gameClosing line: FRES +-5.5 · CSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRES | 0 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| CSU | 14 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 49 |
Team stats
FRESthis game · better side highlightedCSU
469
Total yards
334350
Passing yards
144119
Rushing yards
19028
First downs
154-12 · 33%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CSU 1281
FRES 1508
Projected spread
CSU +6.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
FRES
69% to win
Market spread
CSU +5.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
31%
CSU · market 35%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CSU Elo 1281, FRES Elo 1508) plus home-field advantage. That projects CSU +6.7 (31% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CSU (top)FRES (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CSU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- FRES rush offense (0.02 PPA) vs. CSU rush defense (0.17 allowed) — edge CSU.
- FRES pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. CSU pass defense (0.38 allowed) — edge CSU.
- CSU pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. FRES pass defense (0.15 allowed) — edge CSU.
Drive-by-drive
FRES 4/14 scoring drives← own end zone →CSU 6/12 scoring drives
FRESPUNT5 pl, 22 yds· own 25Q1
CSUTD3 pl, 86 yds· own 14Q1
FRESINT6 pl, 31 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
CSU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. Colorado State?
Fresno State 21, Colorado State 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FRES, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had FRES pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.