Sat, Oct 11, 1:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRES | 0 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 21 |
| CSU | 14 | 21 | 0 | 14 | 49 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (CSU Elo 1281, FRES Elo 1508) plus home-field advantage. That projects CSU +6.7 (31% to win), essentially in line with the market.
CSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Fresno State 21, Colorado State 49.
No — the model picked FRES, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had FRES pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Paul Tangelo 36 Yd Fumble Return (Isaiah Hankins Kick)
Justin Marshall run for 73 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
E.J. Warner pass intercepted, touchback. CJ Blocker return for no gain
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