Fresno State vs. Colorado State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
FRESTeam statsCSU
- Q4 1:12CSUJalen Dupree 4 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)21–49
- Q4 9:15CSULloyd Avant 12 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)21–42
- Q3 5:51FRESRayshon Luke 23 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)21–35
- Q2 1:20FRESJosiah Freeman 26 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)14–35
- Q2 5:58CSUPaul Tangelo 36 Yd Fumble Return (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–35
- Q2 6:08CSURocky Beers 20 Yd pass from Jackson Brousseau (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–28
- Q2 11:42FRESJosiah Freeman 23 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–21
- Q2 14:11CSURocky Beers 4 Yd pass from Jackson Brousseau (Isaiah Hankins Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:13CSUJavion Kinnard 29 Yd pass from Jackson Brousseau (Isaiah Hankins Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:59CSUJustin Marshall 73 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- FRES played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and CSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.4 vs 3rd & 5.1
- PassE.J. Warner 28/49, 350 YDS, 3 TD, 3 INT
- RushBrandon Ramirez 7 CAR, 41 YDS
- RecJosiah Freeman 7 REC, 89 YDS, 2 TD
- PassJackson Brousseau 12/18, 144 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJustin Marshall 7 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJavion Kinnard 3 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCSU up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:03FRES +46%
Jackson Brousseau run for 1 yd to the CSU 48
- Q4 11:25CSU +32%
Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the CSU 42
- Q1 9:59CSU +18%
Justin Marshall run for 73 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
- Q1 5:13CSU +18%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Javion Kinnard for 29 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
- Q2 14:11CSU +13%
Jackson Brousseau pass complete to Rocky Beers for 4 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)
- Q2 11:42FRES +13%
E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 23 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Fresno State vs. Colorado State?
Fresno State 21, Colorado State 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FRES, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| FRES | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 469 | Total yards | 334 |
| 350 | Passing yards | 144 |
| 119 | Rushing yards | 190 |
| 28 | First downs | 15 |
| 4-12 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 28/49 | Comp/Att | 12/18 |
| 7.1 | Yards per pass | 8.0 |
| 3.8 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 13-117 | Penalties | 7-95 |
| 34:48 | Possession | 25:12 |
Costliest call
Q3 9:26 CSU punt on 4th & 1 at CSU 40. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.09 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:12CSUJalen Dupree 4 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)21–49
- Q4 9:15CSULloyd Avant 12 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)21–42
- Q3 5:51FRESRayshon Luke 23 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)21–35
- Q2 1:20FRESJosiah Freeman 26 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)14–35
- Q2 5:58CSUPaul Tangelo 36 Yd Fumble Return (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–35
- Q2 6:08CSURocky Beers 20 Yd pass from Jackson Brousseau (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–28
- Q2 11:42FRESJosiah Freeman 23 Yd pass from E.J. Warner (Dylan Lynch Kick)7–21
- Q2 14:11CSURocky Beers 4 Yd pass from Jackson Brousseau (Isaiah Hankins Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:13CSUJavion Kinnard 29 Yd pass from Jackson Brousseau (Isaiah Hankins Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:59CSUJustin Marshall 73 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CSU Elo 1281, FRES Elo 1508 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CSU +6.7 (34% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#11 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #73 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Colorado State leads 11–7 · 39% have been one-possession games
| FRES | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.4 (#73) | CORE overall | -19.4 (#123) |
| -7 / -4 | offense / defense | -8 / +12 |
| 1.67 | points / drive | 1.58 |
| 1.49 | allowed / drive | 2.91 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| -3 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →