Buffalo vs. Bowling Green: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BUFTeam statsBGSU
- Q4 8:33BGSUJackson Kleather 51 Yd Field Goal 28–3
- Q3 13:25BUFVictor Snow 65 Yd Punt Return (Jack Howes Kick)28–0
- Q2 0:09BUFJasaiah Gathings 5 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)21–0
- Q2 14:54BUFVictor Snow 2 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:57BUFAl-Jay Henderson 41 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTa'Quan Roberson 13/24, 136 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushAl-Jay Henderson 18 CAR, 119 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNik McMillan 8 REC, 105 YDS
- PassDrew Pyne 7/16, 52 YDS
- RushAustyn Dendy 18 CAR, 62 YDS
- RecJyrin Johnson 5 REC, 69 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBUF up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 7:23BUF +24%
PENALTY UB False Start (#73 H.Tabansi) 5 yards from UB43 to UB38. NO PLAY
- Q1 13:57BUF +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 A.Henderson rush middle for 41 yards gain to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 0:09BUF +9%
T. Roberson pass to J. Gathings for 5 yds, for a TD
- Q1 12:03BGSU +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 T.Roberson pass complete short right to #3 N.McMillan caught at UB44, for 6 yards to the UB45 (#12 C.Marshall; #4 G.Lampron)
FAQ
What was the final score of Buffalo vs. Bowling Green?
Buffalo 28, Bowling Green 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BGSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BUF | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 282 | Total yards | 216 |
| 136 | Passing yards | 100 |
| 146 | Rushing yards | 116 |
| 10 | First downs | 15 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 4-16 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 13/24 | Comp/Att | 11/28 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 3.6 |
| 5.4 | Yards per rush | 2.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-35 | Penalties | 1-15 |
| 26:00 | Possession | 34:00 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:04 BUF field goal on 4th & 1 at BGSU 24. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.90 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 8:33BGSUJackson Kleather 51 Yd Field Goal 28–3
- Q3 13:25BUFVictor Snow 65 Yd Punt Return (Jack Howes Kick)28–0
- Q2 0:09BUFJasaiah Gathings 5 Yd pass from Ta'Quan Roberson (Jack Howes Kick)21–0
- Q2 14:54BUFVictor Snow 2 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)14–0
- Q1 13:57BUFAl-Jay Henderson 41 Yd Run (Jack Howes Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BGSU Elo 1322, BUF Elo 1307 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BGSU -3 (59% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#28 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #99 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Bowling Green leads 13–9 · 36% have been one-possession games
| BUF | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -19.7 (#124) | CORE overall | -18.8 (#122) |
| -15 / +5 | offense / defense | -16 / +3 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 1.66 |
| 1.93 | allowed / drive | 2.20 |
| 34% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -11 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →