Sat, Nov 1, 4:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 7 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 28 |
| BGSU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BGSU Elo 1322, BUF Elo 1307) plus home-field advantage. That projects BGSU -3 (59% to win), essentially in line with the market.
BUF up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Buffalo 28, Bowling Green 3.
No — the model picked BGSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had BGSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
#19 J.Henderson punt 47 yards to the UB35 #0 V.Snow return 65 yards to the BGSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 13:25 #91 J.Howes kick attempt good (H: #42 D.Drennan, LS: #57 C.Selee)
(00:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 H.Najm pass incomplete deep left to #18 W.Sharp thrown to UB10, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UB Pass Interference (#14 M.Crawford) 15 yards from UB30 to UB17, 1ST DOWN
End of 3rd quarter.
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →