Doyt L. Perry StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 7 | 14 | 7 | 0 | 28 |
| BGSU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BGSU 1322
BUF 1307
Projected spread
BGSU -3
incl. home edge
Model pick
BGSU
59% to win
Market spread
BGSU -2.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
59%
BGSU · market 55%
Our model blends Elo ratings (BGSU Elo 1322, BUF Elo 1307) plus home-field advantage. That projects BGSU -3 (59% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
BGSU (top)BUF (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BGSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- BGSU pass offense (0.07 PPA) vs. BUF pass defense (0.23 allowed) — edge BUF.
- BUF rush offense (-0.03 PPA) vs. BGSU rush defense (0.06 allowed) — edge BGSU.
- BUF pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. BGSU pass defense (0.28 allowed) — edge BGSU.
Drive-by-drive
BUF 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →BGSU 2/15 scoring drives
BUFTD3 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q1
BGSUDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· opp 48Q1
BUFPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 39Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
BUF up 28 entering the 4th quarter. Across 465 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
BUF went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Buffalo vs. Bowling Green?
Buffalo 28, Bowling Green 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BGSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had BGSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.