Thu, Aug 28, 9:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOIS | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| USF | 0 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 34 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USF Elo 1456, BOIS Elo 1676) plus home-field advantage. That projects USF +6.4 (32% to win), essentially in line with the market.
USF up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Boise State 7, South Florida 34.
No — the model picked BOIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had BOIS pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Locklan Hewlett pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 45 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
Sire Gaines run for 2 yds to the USF 36 Sire Gaines fumbled, forced by Jonas Duclona, recovered by USF Ira Singleton , return for 22 yds to the USF 36
Byrum Brown pass complete to Chas Nimrod for 37 yds to the BOIS 45 for a 1ST down
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →