Boise State vs. South Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BOISTeam statsUSF
- Q4 3:29USFNico Gramatica 33 Yd Field Goal 7–34
- Q4 13:26USFCartevious Norton 8 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)7–31
- Q3 1:44USFByrum Brown 15 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)7–24
- Q3 8:18USFKeshaun Singleton 45 Yd pass from Locklan Hewlett (Nico Gramatica Kick)7–17
- Q2 6:34USFByrum Brown 23 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)7–10
- Q2 12:39USFNico Gramatica 52 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 1:10BOISChris Marshall 6 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USF lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 32% success rate
- PassMaddux Madsen 25/46, 225 YDS, 1 TD
- RushSire Gaines 9 CAR, 44 YDS
- RecLatrell Caples 4 REC, 58 YDS
- PassByrum Brown 16/24, 210 YDS
- RushAlvon Isaac 3 CAR, 52 YDS
- RecChas Nimrod 3 REC, 96 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSF up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 8:18USF +25%
Locklan Hewlett pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 45 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
- Q2 6:34USF +21%
Byrum Brown run for 23 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
- Q1 1:10BOIS +16%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Chris Marshall for 6 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
- Q3 1:44USF +11%
Byrum Brown run for 15 yds for a TD (Nico Gramatica KICK)
- Q1 14:49BOIS +10%
Malik Sherrod run for 4 yds to the BOIS 24
- Q3 14:52USF +10%
Byrum Brown pass complete to Weston Wolff for 7 yds to the USF 32
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. South Florida?
Boise State 7, South Florida 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BOIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| BOIS | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 378 | Total yards | 372 |
| 256 | Passing yards | 255 |
| 122 | Rushing yards | 117 |
| 25 | First downs | 15 |
| 6-17 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 2-6 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 27/48 | Comp/Att | 17/25 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 10.2 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-57 | Penalties | 7-56 |
| 36:21 | Possession | 23:39 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:34 BOIS go for it on 4th & 5 at USF 12. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:29USFNico Gramatica 33 Yd Field Goal 7–34
- Q4 13:26USFCartevious Norton 8 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)7–31
- Q3 1:44USFByrum Brown 15 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)7–24
- Q3 8:18USFKeshaun Singleton 45 Yd pass from Locklan Hewlett (Nico Gramatica Kick)7–17
- Q2 6:34USFByrum Brown 23 Yd Run (Nico Gramatica Kick)7–10
- Q2 12:39USFNico Gramatica 52 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 1:10BOISChris Marshall 6 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1456, BOIS Elo 1676 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USF +6.4 (35% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#12 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #74 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #50 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →| BOIS | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| +5.3 (#55) | CORE overall | +16.2 (#25) |
| -1 / -7 | offense / defense | +11 / -5 |
| 2.37 | points / drive | 3.02 |
| 1.98 | allowed / drive | 1.88 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →