Raymond James Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOIS | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| USF | 0 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 34 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USF 1456
BOIS 1676
Projected spread
USF +6.4
incl. home edge
Model pick
BOIS
68% to win
Market spread
USF +6
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
32%
USF · market 30%
Our model blends Elo ratings (USF Elo 1456, BOIS Elo 1676) plus home-field advantage. That projects USF +6.4 (32% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
USF (top)BOIS (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USF 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- USF pass offense (0.48 PPA) vs. BOIS pass defense (0.08 allowed) — edge USF.
- BOIS rush offense (0.16 PPA) vs. USF rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge BOIS.
- BOIS pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. USF pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge BOIS.
Drive-by-drive
BOIS 1/12 scoring drives← own end zone →USF 6/12 scoring drives
BOISFUM10 pl, 41 yds· own 20Q1
USFPUNT3 pl, -12 yds· own 39Q1
BOISPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 27Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USF up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
USF went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Boise State vs. South Florida?
Boise State 7, South Florida 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked BOIS, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had BOIS pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.