Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)Conference gameClosing line: TROY -7.5 · ARST covered
Sun, Nov 2, 12:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 17 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| TROY | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TROY Elo 1499, ARST Elo 1260) plus home-field advantage. That projects TROY -12 (81% to win) — 4.5 points of value on TROY versus the market line of -7.5.
ARST up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Arkansas State 23, Troy 10.
No — the model picked TROY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had TROY pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
End of 2nd quarter.
(02:06) Shotgun #10 T.Kilcrease pass complete deep middle to #8 T.Taylor caught at ASU45, for 43 yards to the ASU39 (#8 B.Barnes), 1ST DOWN
(08:34) Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short right to #16 C.Cobb caught at Troy30, for 5 yards to the Troy22 fumbled by #16 C.Cobb at Troy25 forced by #44 L.Hodge recovered by Troy #19 D.Jackson Jr. at Troy22, End Of Play
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