Arkansas State vs. Troy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ARSTTeam statsTROY
- Q4 3:38ARSTClune Van Andel 53 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q4 13:02TROYTucker Kilcrease 1 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)20–10
- Q3 9:21ARSTClune Van Andel 31 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 0:21TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 43 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q1 2:58ARSTClune Van Andel 30 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 8:18ARSTHunter Summers 19 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:23ARSTTyler Fortenberry 4 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJaylen Raynor 21/29, 247 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKenyon Clay 16 CAR, 40 YDS
- RecHunter Summers 4 REC, 70 YDS, 1 TD
- PassTucker Kilcrease 19/34, 166 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTae Meadows 14 CAR, 48 YDS
- RecTray Taylor 2 REC, 56 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsARST up 17 entering the 4th quarter. Across 841 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 12:36TROY +46%
#28 E.Crenshaw punt 56 yards to the ASU00, Touchback
- Q4 0:26ARST +35%
Kneel down by #1 J.Raynor at Troy41 for loss of 2 yards
- Q4 13:02TROY +16%
#10 T.Kilcrease rush left for 1 yard gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 8:58ARST +14%
PENALTY ASU UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (#65 N.Smith) 15 yards from Troy15 to Troy30. NO PLAY
- Q3 9:21ARST +12%
#34 C.Van Andel field goal attempt from 31 yards GOOD
- Q4 3:38ARST +8%
#34 C.Van Andel field goal attempt from 53 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Arkansas State vs. Troy?
Arkansas State 23, Troy 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TROY, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ARST | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 297 | Total yards | 187 |
| 247 | Passing yards | 166 |
| 50 | Rushing yards | 21 |
| 16 | First downs | 11 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 5-17 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-5 |
| 21/29 | Comp/Att | 19/34 |
| 8.5 | Yards per pass | 4.9 |
| 1.5 | Yards per rush | 0.6 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-60 | Penalties | 7-76 |
| 28:25 | Possession | 31:35 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:36 TROY punt on 4th & 3 at TROY 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:38ARSTClune Van Andel 53 Yd Field Goal 23–10
- Q4 13:02TROYTucker Kilcrease 1 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)20–10
- Q3 9:21ARSTClune Van Andel 31 Yd Field Goal 20–3
- Q2 0:21TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 43 Yd Field Goal 17–3
- Q1 2:58ARSTClune Van Andel 30 Yd Field Goal 17–0
- Q1 8:18ARSTHunter Summers 19 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:23ARSTTyler Fortenberry 4 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TROY Elo 1499, ARST Elo 1260 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TROY -12 (79% to win) — 4.5 points clear of TROY's market line of -7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#53 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #54 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds.
The 2025 upset archive →Arkansas State leads 11–9 · Arkansas State has won 2 straight · 55% have been one-possession games
| ARST | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.8 (#118) | CORE overall | -16.6 (#116) |
| -11 / +6 | offense / defense | -13 / +4 |
| 1.85 | points / drive | 1.77 |
| 2.35 | allowed / drive | 1.83 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →