Tulane
9-3·American Athletic· Elo 1829
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TULN | 0 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| ARMY | 7 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARMY Elo 1611, TULN Elo 1829) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARMY +6.3 (32% to win), essentially in line with the market.
ARMY up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 668 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Tulane 14, Army 35.
No — the model picked TULN, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had TULN pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Kanye Udoh run for 72 yds to the TULN 3 for a 1ST down
Darian Mensah pass complete to Mario Williams for 42 yds for a TD (Patrick Durkin KICK)
Tyrell Robinson run for no gain to the TULN 4
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