South Florida vs. Tulane: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USFTeam statsTULN
- Q4 12:28TULNTrey Cornist 2 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)10–45
- Q4 14:54TULNMakhi Hughes 9 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)10–38
- Q3 6:19USFJohn Cannon 45 Yd Field Goal 10–31
- Q2 0:34USFByrum Brown 10 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)7–31
- Q2 1:54TULNMario Williams 27 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Ethan Head Kick)0–31
- Q2 4:19TULNMario Williams 53 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Ethan Head Kick)0–24
- Q2 8:50TULNEthan Head 35 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 4:39TULNDontae Fleming 15 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Ethan Head Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:37TULNMakhi Hughes 5 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- USF played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and TULN did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.9 vs 3rd & 5.5
- PassByrum Brown 12/18, 134 YDS
- RushNay'Quan Wright 7 CAR, 38 YDS
- RecAbdur-Rahmaan Yaseen 5 REC, 84 YDS
- PassDarian Mensah 18/22, 326 YDS, 3 TD
- RushMakhi Hughes 17 CAR, 61 YDS, 2 TD
- RecDontae Fleming 7 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTULN up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 670 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 10:37TULN +13%
Makhi Hughes run for 5 yds for a TD (Ethan Head KICK)
- Q1 4:39TULN +9%
Darian Mensah pass complete to Dontae Fleming for 15 yds for a TD (Ethan Head KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of South Florida vs. Tulane?
South Florida 10, Tulane 45.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TULN) was correct.
| USF | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| 201 | Total yards | 528 |
| 175 | Passing yards | 330 |
| 26 | Rushing yards | 198 |
| 12 | First downs | 30 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 8-12 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 16/28 | Comp/Att | 19/23 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 14.3 |
| 1.0 | Yards per rush | 4.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-38 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 17:59 | Possession | 42:01 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:28TULNTrey Cornist 2 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)10–45
- Q4 14:54TULNMakhi Hughes 9 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)10–38
- Q3 6:19USFJohn Cannon 45 Yd Field Goal 10–31
- Q2 0:34USFByrum Brown 10 Yd Run (John Cannon Kick)7–31
- Q2 1:54TULNMario Williams 27 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Ethan Head Kick)0–31
- Q2 4:19TULNMario Williams 53 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Ethan Head Kick)0–24
- Q2 8:50TULNEthan Head 35 Yd Field Goal 0–17
- Q1 4:39TULNDontae Fleming 15 Yd pass from Darian Mensah (Ethan Head Kick)0–14
- Q1 10:37TULNMakhi Hughes 5 Yd Run (Ethan Head Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TULN Elo 1576, USF Elo 1413 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TULN -8.9 (73% to win) — 4.4 points clear of TULN's market line of -4.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| USF | TULN | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.2 (#88) | CORE overall | +13.8 (#27) |
| -7 / -1 | offense / defense | +7 / -7 |
| 2.24 | points / drive | 2.86 |
| 2.21 | allowed / drive | 1.70 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -8 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →