#5Nay'Quan Wright

RB·South Florida·2024

Nay'Quan Wright is a Explosive Back for South Florida. Nay'Quan's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 115 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Nay'Quan Wright's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

510 Rush yards8 Rush TD109 Carries4.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

22 Receptions149 Rec yards0 Rec TD6.8 Yards/rec

Returns

3 Kick returns43 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume40
Explosiveness34
Consistency0
Receiving61

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.44 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.96 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Charlotte (SP+ -15).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsBethune-Cookman	W48-3	—	7	19	2.7	1	1	10	0	0.38
2	@Alabama	L16-42	25.0	11	64	5.8	0	3	11	0	-0.07
3	@Southern Miss	W49-24	-25.6	15	105	7.0	1	3	11	0	0.22
4	vsMiami	L15-50	21.6	6	11	1.8	0	1	1	0	-0.32
5	@Tulane	L10-45	5.7	7	38	5.4	0	—	—	—	-0.49
7	vsMemphis	L3-21	9.6	2	3	1.5	0	2	7	0	-0.24
8	vsUAB	W35-25	-11.3	9	22	2.4	0	1	3	0	-0.16
10	@Florida Atlantic	W44-21	-12.7	17	117	6.9	1	2	12	0	0.24
11	vsNavy	L7-28	3.5	3	10	3.3	0	2	10	0	-0.09
12	@Charlotte	W59-24	-15.3	7	43	6.1	2	2	50	0	0.96
13	vsTulsa	W63-30	-20.6	14	27	1.9	1	2	12	0	0.01
14	@Rice	L28-35	-11.4	6	35	5.8	1	—	—	—	0.65
20	vsSan José State	W41-39	-5.5	5	16	3.2	1	3	22	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

14.1%

Passing plays

4.7%

Rushing plays

23.7%

Standard downs

15.3%

Passing downs

11.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.14
Passing downs: 0.24
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / 0.13

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).