| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MICH | 0 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| OSU | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (OSU Elo 2120, MICH Elo 1867) plus home-field advantage. That projects OSU -12.5 (82% to win) — 7.5 points of value on MICH versus the market line of -20.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,328 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Michigan 13, Ohio State 10.
No — the model picked OSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had OSU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Davis Warren pass intercepted Jack Sawyer return for 12 yds to the OSU 12
Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the OSU 3
Will Howard pass intercepted
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