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Peyton O'Leary
Peyton O'Leary

#81Peyton O'Leary

WR·Michigan·2024

Peyton O'Leary is a Slot Specialist WR for Michigan.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Peyton O'Leary's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving
10 Receptions102 Rec yards1 Rec TD10.2 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume7
  • Explosiveness21
  • Consistency80
  • Pass-Down100
Player type
Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸5 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Production faded as the season progressed — 1.20 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
  • ▸Peak game: 2.82 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Oregon (SP+ 26).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+2.820−2.82Wk 2 vs Texas: +1.95 EPA/play2Wk 9 vs Michigan State: +1.00 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs Oregon: +2.82 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs Indiana: +0.57 EPA/play11Wk 13 vs Northwestern: +0.16 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Ohio State: +1.30 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
2vsTexasL12-3124.112222.00221.95
9vsMichigan StateW24-17-4.611515.00151.00
10vsOregonL17-3826.0166.0162.82
11@IndianaL15-2020.13248.00100.57
13vsNorthwesternW50-6-8.22105.0060.16
14@Ohio StateW13-1031.211818.00181.30
20vsAlabamaW19-1325.0177.007—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
2.6%
Passing plays
6.2%
Rushing plays
0.0%
Standard downs
1.9%
Passing downs
4.1%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.22
Passing downs
1.60
Pass / Rush EPA
0.99 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.
Peyton O Leary Stats, EPA & Player Profile — Michigan · Gridpex