Kent State vs. Miami (OH): Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KENTTeam statsM-OH
- Q4 11:40M-OHDom Dzioban 25 Yd Field Goal 7–34
- Q3 0:02M-OHKeyon Mozee 74 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)7–31
- Q3 9:52M-OHKevin Davis 6 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)7–24
- Q2 11:18M-OHJavon Tracy 34 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Dom Dzioban Kick)7–17
- Q1 3:19M-OHDom Dzioban 45 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 8:09M-OHReggie Virgil 69 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Dom Dzioban Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:40KENTChrishon McCray 11 Yd pass from Tommy Ulatowski (Will Hryszko Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- KENT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and M-OH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.6 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassTommy Ulatowski 10/21, 93 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushKy Thomas 15 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecLuke Floriea 4 REC, 43 YDS
- PassBrett Gabbert 10/22, 202 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKeyon Mozee 19 CAR, 196 YDS, 1 TD
- RecReggie Virgil 2 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsM-OH up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:20M-OH +5%
B.Gabbert pass complete. Catch made by R.Virgil for 69 yards. TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Kent State vs. Miami (OH)?
Kent State 7, Miami (OH) 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (M-OH) was correct.
| KENT | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 189 | Total yards | 477 |
| 93 | Passing yards | 202 |
| 96 | Rushing yards | 275 |
| 16 | First downs | 19 |
| 4-15 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 10/24 | Comp/Att | 10/22 |
| 3.9 | Yards per pass | 9.2 |
| 2.5 | Yards per rush | 6.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-10 | Penalties | 4-52 |
| 28:50 | Possession | 31:10 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:55 KENT punt on 4th & 8 at M-OH 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.46 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 11:40M-OHDom Dzioban 25 Yd Field Goal 7–34
- Q3 0:02M-OHKeyon Mozee 74 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)7–31
- Q3 9:52M-OHKevin Davis 6 Yd Run (Dom Dzioban Kick)7–24
- Q2 11:18M-OHJavon Tracy 34 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Dom Dzioban Kick)7–17
- Q1 3:19M-OHDom Dzioban 45 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q1 8:09M-OHReggie Virgil 69 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Dom Dzioban Kick)7–7
- Q1 13:40KENTChrishon McCray 11 Yd pass from Tommy Ulatowski (Will Hryszko Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (M-OH Elo 1548, KENT Elo 831 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects M-OH -31.1 (97% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMiami (OH) leads 46–16 · Miami (OH) has won 3 straight · 42% have been one-possession games
| KENT | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| -36.6 (#134) | CORE overall | +1.4 (#63) |
| -16 / +21 | offense / defense | -1 / -3 |
| 0.90 | points / drive | 2.15 |
| 3.75 | allowed / drive | 1.44 |
| 42% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -5 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →