Nevada vs. Kansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NEVTeam statsKSU
- Q4 1:12KSUWill Howard 1 Yd Run (Taiten Winkel Kick)17–38
- Q4 6:12KSUWill Howard 2 Yd Run (Taiten Winkel Kick)17–31
- Q4 14:54KSUDeuce Vaughn 11 Yd Run (Taiten Winkel Kick)17–24
- Q3 4:08NEVElijah Cooks 14 Yd pass from Carson Strong (Brandon Talton Kick)17–17
- Q3 10:35NEVBrandon Talton 46 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 2:08KSUTaiten Winkel 37 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 11:42KSUJoe Ervin 22 Yd Run (Taiten Winkel Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:08NEVDevonte Lee 1 Yd Run (Brandon Talton Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:16KSUDaniel Imatorbhebhe 68 Yd pass from Will Howard (Taiten Winkel Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- NEV played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and KSU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.3 vs 3rd & 5.0
- PassCarson Strong 27/40, 262 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDevonte Lee 10 CAR, 24 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRomeo Doubs 7 REC, 121 YDS
- PassWill Howard 7/10, 123 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDeuce Vaughn 23 CAR, 127 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDaniel Imatorbhebhe 1 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 14:54KSU +38%
Deuce Vaughn run for 11 yds for a TD (Taiten Winkel KICK)
- Q3 4:08NEV +27%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 14 yds for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
- Q2 11:42KSU +19%
Joe Ervin run for 22 yds for a TD (Taiten Winkel KICK)
- Q1 0:08NEV +19%
Devonte Lee run for 1 yd for a TD (Brandon Talton KICK)
- Q4 6:12KSU +11%
Will Howard run for 2 yds for a TD (Taiten Winkel KICK)
- Q4 12:21KSU +10%
Joe Ervin run for 7 yds to the Nevad 37
FAQ
What was the final score of Nevada vs. Kansas State?
Nevada 17, Kansas State 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (KSU) was correct.
| NEV | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 331 | Total yards | 398 |
| 306 | Passing yards | 129 |
| 25 | Rushing yards | 269 |
| 14 | First downs | 22 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 5-9 |
| 2-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 28/41 | Comp/Att | 9/13 |
| 7.5 | Yards per pass | 9.9 |
| 1.1 | Yards per rush | 5.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-62 | Penalties | 6-45 |
| 29:00 | Possession | 31:00 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:43 NEV punt on 4th & 2 at NEV 46. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.81 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:12KSUWill Howard 1 Yd Run (Taiten Winkel Kick)17–38
- Q4 6:12KSUWill Howard 2 Yd Run (Taiten Winkel Kick)17–31
- Q4 14:54KSUDeuce Vaughn 11 Yd Run (Taiten Winkel Kick)17–24
- Q3 4:08NEVElijah Cooks 14 Yd pass from Carson Strong (Brandon Talton Kick)17–17
- Q3 10:35NEVBrandon Talton 46 Yd Field Goal 10–17
- Q2 2:08KSUTaiten Winkel 37 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 11:42KSUJoe Ervin 22 Yd Run (Taiten Winkel Kick)7–14
- Q1 0:08NEVDevonte Lee 1 Yd Run (Brandon Talton Kick)7–7
- Q1 14:16KSUDaniel Imatorbhebhe 68 Yd pass from Will Howard (Taiten Winkel Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (KSU Elo 1497, NEV Elo 1495 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects KSU -2.5 (58% to win) — 4.0 points clear of KSU's market line of +1.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2021
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#54 of 112 in 2021 by biggest miss · #111 of 128 in 2021 by longest odds.
The 2021 upset archive →| NEV | KSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +1.4 (#69) | CORE overall | +10.5 (#33) |
| +4 / +2 | offense / defense | +10 / -1 |
| 2.67 | points / drive | 2.91 |
| 1.93 | allowed / drive | 2.00 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +18 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →