#22Deuce Vaughn

RB·Kansas State·20214.0 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Deuce Vaughn is a Pass-Catching Back for Kansas State. Deuce's 2021 season ranks in the 73th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 245 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Deuce Vaughn's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Rushing

1404 Rush yards18 Rush TD235 Carries6.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

49 Receptions468 Rec yards4 Rec TD9.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs RB peers

Efficiency73
Volume100
Explosiveness60
Consistency76
Receiving88

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)73th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency76th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.14 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.13 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Kansas (SP+ -20).

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsStanford	W24-7	-10.2	13	124	9.5	1	2	12	0	0.46
2	vsSouthern Illinois	W31-23	—	26	120	4.6	3	2	1	0	0.50
3	vsNevada	W38-17	3.6	23	127	5.5	1	1	16	0	0.24
4	@Oklahoma State	L20-31	17.2	13	22	1.7	0	5	73	1	0.11
5	vsOklahoma	L31-37	16.8	15	51	3.4	0	10	104	1	0.30
7	vsIowa State	L20-33	14.3	18	99	5.5	0	3	28	0	0.06
8	@Texas Tech	W25-24	9.8	15	52	3.5	2	7	68	1	0.35
9	vsTCU	W31-12	-0.6	20	109	5.5	2	2	49	0	—
10	@Kansas	W35-10	-19.7	11	162	14.7	3	6	70	0	1.13
11	vsWest Virginia	W34-17	1.8	25	121	4.8	1	2	6	0	0.11
12	vsBaylor	L10-20	15.6	11	128	11.6	1	5	37	0	0.47
13	@Texas	L17-22	8.5	24	143	6.0	1	2	7	0	0.17
1	vsLSU	W42-20	4.1	21	146	7.0	3	2	-3	1	0.22

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

36.2%

Passing plays

17.5%

Rushing plays

51.3%

Standard downs

39.7%

Passing downs

27.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.30
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.42 / 0.26

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.