Purdue vs. Missouri: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PURTeam statsMIZ
- Q3 12:30PURRichie Worship 1 Yd pass from David Blough (Spencer Evans Kick)35–3
- Q2 0:00MIZTucker McCann 29 Yd Field Goal 28–3
- Q2 2:20PURJackson Anthrop 5 Yd pass from Elijah Sindelar (J.D. Dellinger Kick)28–0
- Q2 11:51PURRichie Worship 3 Yd Run (Spencer Evans Kick)21–0
- Q1 5:41PURTario Fuller 36 Yd Run (J.D. Dellinger Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:57PURDavid Blough 5 Yd Run (Spencer Evans Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassDavid Blough 22/28, 187 YDS, 1 TD
- RushTario Fuller 19 CAR, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCole Herdman 1 REC, 54 YDS
- PassDrew Lock 12/28, 133 YDS, 2 INT
- RushIsh Witter 7 CAR, 25 YDS
- RecJ'Mon Moore 3 REC, 61 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPUR up 32 entering the 4th quarter. Across 373 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:57PUR +19%
David Blough run for 5 yds for a TD, (Spencer Evans KICK)
- Q1 5:41PUR +17%
Tario Fuller run for 36 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)
- Q2 11:51PUR +14%
Richie Worship run for 3 yds for a TD, (Spencer Evans KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Purdue vs. Missouri?
Purdue 35, Missouri 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MIZ, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| PUR | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| 477 | Total yards | 203 |
| 272 | Passing yards | 133 |
| 205 | Rushing yards | 70 |
| 26 | First downs | 10 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 2-11 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 26/34 | Comp/Att | 12/28 |
| 8.0 | Yards per pass | 4.8 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 3-25 | Penalties | 6-46 |
| 43:43 | Possession | 16:17 |
Costliest call
Q3 11:09 PUR punt on 4th & 1 at PUR 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 12:30PURRichie Worship 1 Yd pass from David Blough (Spencer Evans Kick)35–3
- Q2 0:00MIZTucker McCann 29 Yd Field Goal 28–3
- Q2 2:20PURJackson Anthrop 5 Yd pass from Elijah Sindelar (J.D. Dellinger Kick)28–0
- Q2 11:51PURRichie Worship 3 Yd Run (Spencer Evans Kick)21–0
- Q1 5:41PURTario Fuller 36 Yd Run (J.D. Dellinger Kick)14–0
- Q1 9:57PURDavid Blough 5 Yd Run (Spencer Evans Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MIZ Elo 1396, PUR Elo 1370 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MIZ -3.4 (60% to win) — 2.1 points clear of PUR's market line of -5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#10 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #75 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Purdue leads 7–3 · 30% have been one-possession games
| PUR | MIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| +4.1 (#54) | CORE overall | +13.8 (#22) |
| -2 / -6 | offense / defense | +13 / -1 |
| 1.79 | points / drive | 2.49 |
| 1.53 | allowed / drive | 2.13 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 29% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →