LSU vs. Mississippi State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
LSUTeam statsMSST
- Q4 13:01MSSTDeddrick Thomas 20 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Jace Christmann Kick)7–37
- Q3 1:55MSSTJace Christmann 27 Yd Field Goal 7–30
- Q3 5:10MSSTKeith Mixon 45 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Jace Christmann Kick)7–27
- Q3 10:53MSSTJace Christmann 45 Yd Field Goal 7–20
- Q2 0:07MSSTNick Fitzgerald 3 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)7–17
- Q2 5:04MSSTJace Christmann 30 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 9:44LSUDarrel Williams 10 Yd Run (Jack Gonsoulin Kick)7–7
- Q2 13:38MSSTNick Fitzgerald 3 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassDanny Etling 13/29, 137 YDS
- RushDerrius Guice 15 CAR, 76 YDS
- RecDarrel Williams 2 REC, 37 YDS
- PassNick Fitzgerald 15/23, 180 YDS, 2 TD
- RushAeris Williams 23 CAR, 146 YDS
- RecKeith Mixon Jr. 6 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMSST up 23 entering the 4th quarter. Across 836 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:07MSST +22%
N. Fitzgerald run for 3 yds for a TD, (J. Christmann KICK)
- Q2 9:44LSU +20%
Darrel Williams run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jack Gonsoulin KICK)
- Q2 13:38MSST +20%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
- Q3 5:10MSST +14%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 45 yds for a TD, (Jace Christmann KICK)
- Q2 5:04MSST +10%
Jace Christmann 30 Yd Field Goal
- Q3 10:53MSST +9%
Jace Christmann 45 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of LSU vs. Mississippi State?
LSU 7, Mississippi State 37.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked LSU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| LSU | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| 270 | Total yards | 465 |
| 137 | Passing yards | 180 |
| 133 | Rushing yards | 285 |
| 13 | First downs | 25 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 13/29 | Comp/Att | 15/23 |
| 4.7 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 5.9 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 9-112 | Penalties | 5-49 |
| 24:05 | Possession | 35:55 |
Costliest call
Q4 10:22 LSU go for it on 4th & 14 at MSST 31. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.75 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 13:01MSSTDeddrick Thomas 20 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Jace Christmann Kick)7–37
- Q3 1:55MSSTJace Christmann 27 Yd Field Goal 7–30
- Q3 5:10MSSTKeith Mixon 45 Yd pass from Nick Fitzgerald (Jace Christmann Kick)7–27
- Q3 10:53MSSTJace Christmann 45 Yd Field Goal 7–20
- Q2 0:07MSSTNick Fitzgerald 3 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)7–17
- Q2 5:04MSSTJace Christmann 30 Yd Field Goal 7–10
- Q2 9:44LSUDarrel Williams 10 Yd Run (Jack Gonsoulin Kick)7–7
- Q2 13:38MSSTNick Fitzgerald 3 Yd Run (Jace Christmann Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MSST Elo 1717, LSU Elo 1874 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MSST +3.9 (41% to win) — 3.6 points clear of MSST's market line of +7.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#11 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #60 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds · #13 of 58 in 2017 by biggest poll gap.
The 2017 upset archive →LSU leads 74–37–3 · LSU has won 3 straight · 40% have been one-possession games
| LSU | MSST | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.7 (#15) | CORE overall | +18.5 (#16) |
| +10 / -8 | offense / defense | +3 / -15 |
| 2.31 | points / drive | 2.31 |
| 1.65 | allowed / drive | 1.42 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 24% |
| -8 | pass over expected | -10 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →